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Jeremy Perry
Heat vs. Raptors Prediction: NBA Odds, Point Spread
The Raptors were expected to drop-off after losing Kawhi Leonard in the offseason but they’ve done nothing of the sort, winning 15 of their first 19 games. As for the Heat, they’ve come out of nowhere to not only be competitive, but to be a chief contender for the top spot in the Eastern Conference. They’re sitting at 14-5 and enter having won eight of their last 10 games. Can they surprise the Raptors on the road or at least cover the spread?
NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Heat are 9-1 against the spread as a favorite but are just 3-4 otherwise. Road games have been a bit of a challenge for them as they are 5-6 ATS and SU when away from home. The Heat are just 5-5 against teams above .500 versus 8-0 otherwise.
The Raptors have thrived as a favorite this season, going 12-0 straight up and 10-2 against the spread. They are also 9-0 SU at home and 8-1 ATS in these games. However, they are just 3-3 ATS and SU when facing teams with a winning record.
Miami Heat
The Heat won just 39 games last season and are already nearly halfway there. They’ve been one of the league’s biggest surprises so far as their offseason additions have made huge impacts. While everyone knew about Jimmy Butler, who leads the team with 18.7 points per game, it’s been rookies Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro that have elevated this team. Nunn, who went undrafted, is averaging 16.4 points per game while Herro, the team’s first-round pick, is chipping in 15.1. Even undrafted rookie Duncan Robinson is adding 10.7 points. All of these youngsters are in support of a cast that included Butler, Goran Dragic and up-and-comer Bam Adebayo gives the Heat a really good roster.
With head coach Erik Spoelstra at the helm, we know this team can play defense. They’re second in opponent three-point shooting, eighth in opponent field goal percentage and ninth in points per game. They’re a good, young team that’s going to improve as the season goes along and their defense gives them plenty of buffer to learn on the fly. That defense will be important in Toronto on Tuesday.
Toronto Raptors
Speaking of defense, while the Heat are doing fairly well in that category, the Raptors are among the best in the business. They’re holding opponents to a league-best 40.8% from the field and are fourth in terms of points allowed. Whatever they learned with Leonard in the fold last year, it’s carrying over.
The Raptors clearly would be better if Leonard had stayed but a number of players on the roster have elevated their game to the point where it looks like they don’t miss him right now. The Raptors smoked the Utah Jazz 130-110 on Sunday, scoring 77 in the first half. Pascal Siakam had 35 in that game, including 26 in the first half. On the year, he’s averaging 25.9 points per game, which is a sizable jump from the 16.9 he was doing last season. Fred VanVleet has seen a similar jump, going from 11.0 points per game last season to 18.5 this year. Both Norman Powell (12.5) and OG Anunoby (11.3) are double-digit scorers too. The Raptors are playing so well and All-Star Kyle Lowry isn’t even in the lineup as a thumb injury has limited him to eight games.
The Raptors are a perfect 9-0 at home and that should be a big edge here. The Heat are just 6-5 in away games.