Heat vs. Pacers Game 1 Prediction: NBA Playoff Odds, Point Spread

Charlie Grant | Updated Aug 16, 2020

Jimmy Butler, Heat 2020

Jimmy Butler has long wanted to be the star of his own team. He had to share the spotlight in Minnesota and Philadelphia, but he returns to the playoffs as Miami’s unquestioned top dog. 

Miami
44-29
AT
August 18, 2020, 4:00 PM ET
The Arena
Indiana
45-28
Pointspread -4 -110
Moneyline -179
Over / Under o +216

65%

Betting Action

35%

Pointspread +4 -110
Moneyline +149
Over / Under u +216

65%

Betting Action

35%

One of the most evenly-matched series in the first round of the NBA playoffs sees Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat play against TJ Warren and the Indiana Pacers. The Pacers have the higher seed but oddsmakers see the Heat as the favourite to advance.

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Miami started the season off like a house on fire. The Heat won 11 of their first 14 games and went 11-2-1 against the spread along the way. The rest of the NBA and oddsmakers caught up with the team after that. Miami finished the campaign 15 games over .500 and 36-35-2 ATS.

The Heat won just three of their five games in the seeding round including a 17-point loss to the Pacers on Friday. Despite the missed results in Orlando, Sports Interaction lists the Heat as -313 favourites against the Pacers (+240). 

This means a Miami backer would have to bet $313 to win $100 while Indy supporters are in line for a $240 payout on a $100 bet if their club pulls off the upset.

Indiana finished with the fourth best ATS mark on the season at 40-30-3 (57.1% cover rate). The Pacers went 6-2 SU and ATS in the seeding games. The run including impressive outright wins against the 76ers, the Lakers, the Rockets and the Heat. 

The Heat won the season series 3-1 and the lone loss came on the final day of the seeding games, with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo resting. 

SIA lists Miami as the team with the eighth shortest odds to win the Larry O’Brien trophy this year at +2800. The Pacers have the third longest odds to win the title (+8000) with only the Nets (+12,500) and Magic (+15,00) owning longer odds.

Miami Heat

Jimmy Butler has long wanted to be the star of his own team. He had to share the spotlight in Minnesota and Philadelphia, but he returns to the playoffs as Miami’s unquestioned top dog. 

The two-way wing will likely take the assignment of guarding TJ Warren. Warren averaged 31 points per game in the restart and finished in third place for the seeding games MVP behind Damian Lillard and Devin Booker.

Butler relishes the role of shutting down scorers like Warren. Butler held Warren to just 12 points on 5-of-14 shooting last Monday.

Indiana Pacers

It doesn’t look like Domantas Sabonis will be suiting back up in the first round of the playoffs. The versatile big man is dealing with plantar fasciitis and there is no timetable for his return. The All-Star forward didn’t play a minute during the seeding games but he was a key member during the regular season – averaging 18.5 points per game and a team-best 12.4 rebounds per game.

Who Will Win Heat vs. Pacers?

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