Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks Game 5 Prediction, NBA Odds

Edgar Chaput | Updated May 09, 2023

NBA: Playoffs-New York Knicks at Miami Heat

The New York Knicks will fight for their season at home in Game 5 on Wednesday against the Miami Heat, who lead the series 3-1.

May 10, 2023, 7:30 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
New York
Pointspread +3 -117
Moneyline +127
Over / Under o +209.5


Betting Action


Pointspread -3 -103
Moneyline -153
Over / Under u +209.5


Betting Action


Game 4 in Florida was a familiar story, the tale of this second-round series, really. An okay effort by the Knicks to make the contest interesting, but Miami executed more plays, more often, and with greater moxie to earn a 109-101 victory and a convincing 3-1 lead.

The basketball gurus believe that New York will avoid elimination in front of their fans on Wednesday, as they are pinned at -3.5 on the NBA odds. As for the total, it’s established at 209.5.

Heat vs. Knicks NBA Playoffs Betting Odds

Given that one side has a 3-1 series stranglehold, it comes as no surprise that Erik Spoelstra’s Heat are -909 favourites to finish off the Knicks on the series board. It’s a considerable adjustment from the -122 odds Miami was graced with heading into Game 4. Then again, they keep outplaying New York enough to justify the odds. Tom Thibodeau’s ensemble was -109 but is now +496.

There are no two ways about it at this stage of the postseason. Miami is playing like the 2021-2022 version that earned the number one seed in the Eastern Conference rather than the squad that struggled to find consistency through most of 2022-2023. The same coach is there and the lineup frankly isn’t much different, so they had it in them this whole time.

Much to their dismay, Knicks faithful can look back to their first-round series two seasons ago when they were lightly favoured aver the Atlanta Hawks but lost 4-1. In fact, the first four tilts of that matchup played out exactly like this current one: a split in Manhattan before the series got derailed once the Knicks became the road team.

Both the over and under have earned the spoils twice in this series. Furthermore, each has claimed one win in each city. New York hasn’t covered a single spread through four chances.

Miami Heat

Game 4 felt like one of the few times during the team’s run that everybody made big plays. Yes, Jimmy Buckets led the team with 27 points, and once again benefitted from sneak attacks past New York’s defence to receive long-range passes from Kevin Love. He’s as smart and clever a player as they get. But Bam Adebayo cannot be overlooked. His 23 points and 13 rebounds were monumentally important for the win. The Knicks could not handle his presence in the paint, whether it was for lobs or good old-fashioned power drives past whoever dared guard him.

Max Strus was a factor with four three-point shots en route to 16 points and Caleb Martin, while only tallying 10 points off the bench, pitched in with five rebounds. This was the most complete team performance of the playoffs thus far, which is great for them and bodes woefully for New York.

New York Knicks

It all comes down to this. There is no more margin for error. There cannot be another game in which they allow Butler and company to outhustle them. Otherwise, their 2022-2023 campaign will be officially closed.

We can only write so many times that Jalen Brunson (32), Julius Randle (20), and RJ Barrett (24) led the team in points but they still lost. It’s the same story over again. Nobody else on the side is contributing nearly enough. Brunson even had the most rebounds with 11.

Randle also committed six turnovers. It wouldn’t be right to put all the blame for New York’s predicament on his shoulders – really, other players must step up – but he is supposed to be one of the club’s leaders and his series has been disappointingly uneven. Looking at these matches, Game 4 included, New York doesn’t show the drive and desire Miami does. They have talent, but Miami has that and grit to go along with it.

Game 5 Prediction: Who Will Win Heat vs. Knicks?

NBA Predictions