Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Game 5 Prediction, NBA Odds

Payton Matthews | Updated May 24, 2023

The betting favourite hasn’t won a game yet in the NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals between the Heat and Celtics.

May 25, 2023, 8:30 PM ET
TD Garden
Pointspread +8.5 -115
Moneyline +240
Over / Under o +215
Pointspread -8.5 -105
Moneyline -300
Over / Under u +215

As the series returns to Boston for Game 5 on Thursday, the C’s are priced at -8 on the NBA odds.

Heat vs. Celtics NBA Playoff Betting Odds

With Boston winning Game 4 of the East Finals by a score of 116-99 in Miami on Tuesday, the fourth straight game the betting underdog won in the series (that was the first time Boston wasn’t favoured), the Celtics trail the series 3-1. They are now +204 on the series line (were +659 entering Game 4) with Miami at -286 (was -1429). 

That the series finishes in five games is +247, six at +148 and seven at +148. The favoured exact result is Heat in six at +173, followed by Boston in seven at +205, Heat in five at +233 and Heat in seven at +699. I lean Miami in six currently.

Boston is 0-2 in Game 5s in these playoffs, losing both at home. Miami is 1-1 in road Game 5s. The Heat are 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.

Miami Heat

The Heat were shooting outrageously well from three-point range in the series but they regressed big time in Game 4, hitting just 8-for-32 and outscored by 30 points from deep in the 116-99 home loss – the Heat had been unbeaten at home in these playoffs. Jimmy Butler led the way with 29 points but was minus-20 and no other player had more than 17 points. Bam Adebayo especially disappointed with 10 points and five rebounds in 35 minutes, battling some foul issues. Caleb Martin had 16 points and is averaging 18.5 points against the Celtics this series, the second-highest average by a Heat reserve during a series in team postseason history. The Heat did lead Game 4 by nine in the third quarter but faded in the fourth quarter for the first time in the series. Miami is 15-0 all-time when leading a series 3-1. It is 4-1 ATS in its past five after a loss. 

Boston Celtics

The Celtics were the vastly superior three-point shooting team to Miami in the regular season, so the C’s were overdue to dominate from deep like they did in Game 4. Five different players hit at least three three-pointers, led by Jayson Tatum’s four and game-high 33 points to go with 11 rebounds and seven assists. Jaylen Brown’s struggles from deep continued, though, as he was 1-for-5 and is 3-for-25 in the series. Grant Williams was big off the bench in Game 4 with 15 points and six rebounds. Boston needed that as Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon was a non-factor in 17 minutes. The Celtics had struggled in the fourth quarters of the first three games but outscored Miami 28-20 in the fourth on Tuesday. No NBA team has rallied to win a series it trailed 3-0. Boston has lost a shocking five times at home in these playoffs, but we think forces Game 6. The Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their past seven at home. 

Game 5 Prediction: Who Will Win Heat vs. Celtics?

NBA Predictions