Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Game 2 Prediction, NBA Odds

Payton Matthews | Updated May 18, 2023

The Miami Heat stunned the Celtics in Boston in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals and try for a 2-0 series lead Friday.

Miami
44-38
AT
May 19, 2023, 8:30 PM ET
TD Garden
Boston
57-25
Pointspread +9.5 -110
Moneyline +367
Over / Under o +215

78%

Betting Action

22%

Pointspread -9.5 -110
Moneyline -454
Over / Under u +215

78%

Betting Action

22%

The C’s are priced as 9-point home favourites on the NBA odds and a total of 215.5 points. 

Heat vs. Celtics NBA Playoff Betting Odds

Even though Miami stole Game 1 by a score of 123-116 as an 8-point road underdog, the Celtics remain -235 series line favourites (were -625 entering Game 1) with the Heat +171 (were +350). On the series handicap, Boston at -1.5 games is +133 and Miami +1.5 games is -179. 

The over-under for total tams is 5.5, with the over now -357 (was -127). That it finishes in six games is the new +148 leader, and the favoured exact result is Celtics in seven at +232, which is where I lean. The favourite had been Boston in five at +205 but that’s now +394. An unlikely Miami sweep is +1297.

The Celtics are 2-0 in Game 2s in these playoffs, winning both at home easily. The Heat are 0-2 in Game 2s, losing both on the road. 

The Heat are 14-5-1 ATS in their past 19 in Boston. 

Miami Heat

We thought the 8-point spread for Game 1 was too high as we projected Miami to cover that spread, but Jimmy Butler & Co. did much better than that as they stunned Boston 123-116 largely thanks to a 46-25 edge in third-quarter scoring. That’s a sign of great coaching when you dominate out of halftime, and Erik Spoelstra is considered one of the NBA’s best. Butler was the best player on the floor as he has been for most of these playoffs with 35 points, eight rebounds, five assists and a whopping six steals while also playing excellent defence on Boston star Jayson Tatum. Miami also got 15 points each off the bench from Caleb Martin and Kyle Lowry. The Heat are the fifth team in league history to win Game 1 on the road in each of their first three playoff series. None of the previous four won an NBA title. The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their past five on the road. 

Boston Celtics

Boston simply loses focus at home sometimes – Wednesday was the Celtics’ fourth home playoff defeat already. They did win following each of the first three and I fully expect them to do so on Friday as well, but 9 points after what we just saw? All-Star Jayson Tatum, who finished fourth in regular-season MVP voting, got off to a good start in Game 1 but had zero field goals attempted and three turnovers in the fourth quarter. How does Jayson Tatum get zero shot attempts in the fourth? Yes, Jimmy Butler did play great defence on him as Tatum shot 38 per cent from the field when Butler was his final defender in the half court and 60 per cent against other Heat defenders. I’d expect a massive bounce-back game for Tatum on Friday if thinking about player props. The only player on the Celtics roster with a positive plus/minus rating was Jaylen Brown at plus-3. He had 22 points and nine rebounds. The C’s attempted 29 three-pointers and usually attempt around 40. Miami outscored Boston by 18 behind the arc. The Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their past nine after a loss. 

Game 2 Prediction: Who Will Win Heat vs. Celtics?

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