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Andrew Rogers
Heat vs. 76ers: Game 5 Prediction, NBA Playoff Odds
Don’t look now, but the Philadelphia 76ers could be the first Eastern Conference team to reach the second round of the NBA playoffs. The 76ers will look to finish off the visiting Miami Heat on Tuesday night at Wells Fargo Center – and oddsmakers believe they’ll do just that, making them a near-double-digit favorite for Game 5. Not only is the spread the biggest of the series for this NBA matchup, but the total of 211.5 is the lowest as oddsmakers expect both teams to tighten up on defence.
NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis
Philadelphia has certainly earned a spread near double digits with the way it has controlled the series – but bettors should be careful of shoving all-in on the 76ers against the spread despite recent trends. Philly has covered just two of the previous five games in which it was favoured by 10 or more points, though they missed covering their past two contests as double-digit faves by two or fewer points. And the Sixers have covered four of the first five games in the series.
The slightly depressed total comes after the teams combined for a series-low 208 points last time out – and the Heat will pull out all the stops to try and curtail Philadelphia’s impressive offense. Miami has gone below the total in five of its past six games following a loss, but is 10-4 O/U in its previous 14 road contests. Philadelphia doesn’t have many strong totals trends at the moment, but is 6-2 O/U in its past games against Eastern Conference foes.
Miami Heat
If you believe the Heat are capable of extending this series, there is money to be made. Miami is a whopping +450 to pull out the straight-up victory, while you’ll get +750 for going with the Heat to prevail by 1-3 points. Miami is installed at +2,200 to repeat the 10-point victory it earned in Game 2. One interesting note: The Heat’s team total of 101 is lower than Miami’s tally in any of the first four games of the series.
Philadelphia 76ers
Betting on the Sixers’ team total of 110.5 is a bit challenging; Philadelphia has gone well above that number in two games, and below the two other times. Oddsmakers have also spread the odds well over a number of Philly win outcomes; the Sixers are at +550 to win by 1-3 points, +500 to prevail by 4-6, +550 to triumph by 7-9, +650 to win by 10-12 and +650 to defeat the Heat by 13-16. Three of Philly’s last five wins have come by 20+ points, which pays at +1,200.
