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Andrew Rogers
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers: Game 1 Prediction, NBA Playoff Odds
The 76ers steamrolled the opposition down the stretch, winning 16 consecutive games to finish third in the Eastern Conference – and they have revenge on their minds after dropping their final two meetings with the Heat during the regular season.
NBA Playoffs Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The 76ers are significant favorites in the opener despite splitting four regular-season meetings with the Heat. Philadelphia comes in having covered in 19 of its previous 26 home games, and is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 vs. East foes. Miami is 18-8-2 ATS in its past 26 road contests, and has successfully covered in 11 of its previous 14 games overall. The home team has covered six of the previous eight head-to-head encounters, with one push.
From a totals standpoint, both teams are trending strongly toward the over. Miami has exceeded the number in nine of its previous 12 games away from American Airlines Arena, and is 8-3-1 O/U in its past 12 following a straight-up win. Philadelphia has gone over in four of its last five games and is 4-0 O/U in its previous four games vs. East opponents. And the teams have combined to convert the over in five of their last seven meetings in Philadelphia.
Miami Heat
Oddsmakers aren’t in the Heat’s corner; they’re +365 to upset the 76ers in Round 1 and a whopping +4,000 to do the unthinkable and represent the East in the NBA Finals. But they do have a few tricks up their sleeve; most notably, they limited opponents to a 50.7-percent true shooting rate during the regular season, seventh-best in the league. They also held foes to a 1.48 assist-to-turnover ratio, higher than only two other NBA teams.
Philadelphia 76ers
You might want to limit your 76ers bets to first-half props; Philadelphia averaged nearly 57 first-half points per game during the season, but only 52.4 after the half. And while Embiid and Simmons’ offensive exploits get the majority of the attention, bettors shouldn’t ignore the fact that the 76ers limited opponents to NBA lows in shooting percentage (43.4), two-point success rate (48.2 percent) and overall effective field goal percentage (49.2).
