Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 4 Prediction, NBA Odds

Payton Matthews | Updated May 22, 2023

The eighth-seeded Heat look to complete a stunning sweep in the Eastern Conference Finals of the second-seeded Celtics on Tuesday night in Game 4.

May 23, 2023, 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Arena
Pointspread +1.5 -110
Moneyline +100
Over / Under o +216.5
Pointspread -1.5 -110
Moneyline -120
Over / Under u +216.5

The Heat are 1.5-point home favourites on the NBA odds with a total of 216 points. 

Celtics vs. Heat NBA Playoff Betting Odds

With Miami winning Game 3 by a score of 128-102, the Heat lead the Eastern Conference Finals 3-0 and are -1429 on the series line (were -185 entering Game 3) and the Celtics +659 (were +139). The Heat already have won the +1.5-game series handicap.

That it finishes in a sweep is a -123 favourite, followed by five games at +415, six at +391 and seven at +488. Heat in four is the favoured exact score at -135, while Miami in seven is the +1531 long shot. Miami is 2-0 at home in Game 4s in these playoffs, while Boston is 1-1 in road Game 4s. 

No matter what happens in this series or out West, the NBA Finals won’t start until Thursday, June 1. Denver would have home-court advantage over Miami if it ends up as that matchup as it likely will. 

Boston Celtics

I’m not even sure what to say any longer. I’ve had Boston winning each of the first three games … but not covering the spread in any. The Celtics didn’t look ready for Miami’s intensity out of the gates in Game 3 and lost 128-102, easily Boston’s worst game of these playoffs. Coach Joe Mazzulla opted to put guard Derrick White back into the starting five and centre Robert Williams in a reserve role. Both of them played solidly and Boston dominated on the boards regardless, but stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown combined for only 26 points. That’s shocking. After going 11-for-42 from deep in Game 3, the Celtics are now 31-for-106 (29.2 per cent) from three in the series. Miami shot 54 per cent from deep in Game 3 and is shooting 44-for-92 (47.8 per cent) for the series. That’s the biggest reason for why Miami is up 3-0. The Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their past seven. 

Miami Heat

Only two teams who ranked last in points per game during the regular season have reached the NBA Finals: 1964 Warriors and 1956 Pistons. Miami is one win from joining that group. The Heat averaged 109.5 ppg during the regular season and are putting up 114.9 ppg in the playoffs despite losing 20-point scorer Tyler Herro to injury in Game 1 of Round 1. Star Jimmy Butler didn’t have to carry the offensive load in Game 3 with Gabe Vincent scoring 29, and Duncan Robinson and Cody Martin totaling 40 points off the bench. The Heat shot 56.8 per cent overall and 19-for-35 from deep. Erik Spoelstra is leading a series 3-0 for the seventh time in his head coaching career. That is the fifth-most by a head coach in NBA history. Miami has not lost at home in these playoffs (not counting play-in tournament). The Heat are 10-2 ATS in their past 12 overall. 

Game 4 Prediction: Who Will Win Celtics vs. Heat?

NBA Predictions