Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 3 Prediction, NBA Odds

Payton Matthews | Updated May 20, 2023

The Eastern Conference Finals shift to Miami for Game 3 on Sunday with the eighth-seeded Heat up on the second-seeded Celtics 2-0 in the series.

May 21, 2023, 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Arena
Pointspread -4.5 -110
Moneyline -178
Over / Under o +214.5
Pointspread +4.5 -110
Moneyline +149
Over / Under u +214.5

Boston is a 3-point favourite on the NBA odds.

Celtics vs. Heat NBA Playoff Betting Odds

Miami has become the first eighth seed in NBA history to ever lead a conference finals (or NBA Finals) 2-0 thanks to a 111-105 road upset on Friday. On the updated series line, the Heat are -185 (were +171 entering Game 2) and Celtics +139 (were -235). On the series handicap, Boston at -1.5 games is +496 and Miami at +1.5 games is -909.

The over-under for total games is 5.5, with the over a -286 favourite. That it finishes in seven is the +164 leader and a sweep is +302. The top exact result is Celtics in seven at +239 (still leaning there myself) barely over Heat in a sweep at +297. 

Boston is 1-1 in Game 3s in these playoffs, both on the road. Miami is 2-0 in its Game 3s, both at home. 

Boston Celtics

We faded the Celtics to cover the 8- and 9-point spreads, respectively, in the first two games of this series but am shocked they lost both outright at home. Boston had been 3-0 after a home playoff loss this year but had another fourth-quarter meltdown in the 111-105 Game 2 defeat on Friday. Jayson Tatum finished with a game-high 34 points to go with 13 rebounds and eight assists, but he didn’t make a field goal in the fourth quarter for the second game in a row and has totalled five turnovers in said quarters. Still, all looked fine when Grant Williams hit a three-pointer to put the Celtics up 96-87 with 6:37 left in the fourth quarter. Williams started jawing with Heat star Jimmy Butler and that woke Miami up as it finished the game on a 24-9 run. Boston is 4-1 ATS in its past five road games. 

Miami Heat

The Heat have been the better coached, more poised club in the first two games by frustrating the Celtics into fourth quarter mistake after mistake. In Game 2, Boston didn’t make a field goal for the final 3 minutes, 52 seconds, missing its final four shots and committing two turnovers. That allowed Miami to close with a 24-9 run over the final 6:37. Jimmy Butler led the Heat with 27 points, eight rebounds and six assists, while Bam Adebayo had 22 points, 17 rebounds and nine assists. It was his 23rd career playoff double-double, passing  Dwyane Wade for the 2nd most in Heat history, behind LeBron James (31). At the same time, the Heat have showed their flaws in trailing by at least 12 in each of the first two games. The Heat are 6-2 this postseason when trailing by at least 10 points in a game. The rest of the NBA is 15-60. Miami is 6-1 ATS in its past seven at home. 

Game 3 Prediction: Who Will Win Celtics vs. Heat?

NBA Predictions