Celtics vs. Heat Game 4 Prediction: NBA Playoffs Odds

Nik Kowalski | Updated Apr 28, 2024

NBA: Playoffs-Boston Celtics at Miami Heat

The Boston Celtics have regained control over the Miami Heat as they reconvene in South Beach ahead of Game 4 Monday night.

April 29, 2024, 7:30 PM ET
American Airlines Arena
Pointspread -10.5 -110
Moneyline -550
Over / Under o +205.5
Pointspread +10.5 -110
Moneyline +400
Over / Under u +205.5

Boston’s 104-84 road victory in Game 3 delivered a statement of this Celtics team clearly being the better of the two on the court, but as we’ve seen in recent two playoff matchups — momentum swings heavy and often.

All three games in this series have been decided by double digits. Boston won Game 1 and 3 by 20 points each but the Heat responded in between with a 10-point victory in Game 2. In last season’s Eastern Conference Final, eight-seed Miami had a 3-0 series lead only for Boston to storm back with three double-digit wins, and then a 19-point Heat road win in Game 7.

What will happen next in this back-and-forth rivalry? Tip-off for Game 4 at the Kaseya Center is at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday, with Boston a 10.5-point road favourite and the over-under at 203.5 on the NBA odds.

Celtics vs. Heat NBA Betting Odds

The winning team has also covered in all of the first three games this series, the difference being Boston’s two victories saw the total go under and Miami finish under 100 points. Miami made 23 threes in their Game 2 victory — a franchise record in the playoffs — but are then 21 for 65 from the arc in their two losses.

Boston’s predictably been the steadier of these two clubs and continue to battle through road environments. The Celtics are 28-14 away from home this season and have five consecutive wins in Miami. Seven of the last 10 Heat–Celtics contests have finished under the total but it keeps dropping (down to 203.5 in Game 4) as going over 100 points in this series is a milestone.

Boston Celtics

The Celtics are now 15-4 coming off a loss this season with the average victory margin at 12.2 points. The key to the Game 3 turnaround was Boston’s team defence. The Celtics held Miami to 32 field goals and nine made threes, yet another sign of Boston’s roster being championship quality. It was a win where Boston got ahead early and never looked back, cruising after getting out to a 63-39 lead at the half.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown led the Celtics balanced attack in Game 3 with 22 points each. Tatum’s still yet to pop off in the playoffs and it’s because he’s only drained five of his 21 attempts from the three-point arc. If he can get hot from three, Boston will reach a new level.

Miami Heat

Miami’s benchmark isn’t too hard; when they hit 100 points against the Celtics it usually results in a Heat win. Dating back to last year’s Eastern Conference Final, the Heat are 5-1 when they put up 100 points against Boston and 0-4 when they don’t. This go around, the biggest variance in Miami’s offensive play is their three-point shooting. In Game 2 the Heat connected on 23 three-pointers but they went cold in the two losses.

Starting point guard Tyler Herro has led the way with 12 made threes in the series and whether he catches fire or not has correlated with Miami’s outcome in each game. Caleb Martin is another key shooter for the Heat in this series. In Game 2 Martin shot five for six from the arc and in Miami’s two losses he’s a combined one for six. Miami will live and die by the three.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Celtics vs. Heat Game 4?

NBA Predictions