The NBA’s best team in the 2019-20 regular season, the Milwaukee Bucks, is on the precipice of being shockingly swept out of the Eastern Conference semifinals by the Miami Heat on Sunday in Game 4. For the first time in the series, the Heat are favoured (-1.5) on the NBA odds.

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Miami won Game 3 on Friday 115-100 to take a commanding 3-0 series lead – no NBA team has rallied from down 3-0 to win a series. It has happened in MLB and the NHL but not the NBA.

For the sake of transparency, this writer has picked the Bucks to win each of the first three games of this series. It’s a betting site, though, and we are 2-1 against the spread. All that matters. Miami gave the Bucks fits during the regular season … and Milwaukee for whatever reason has just not looked the same since the restart in the Orlando bubble. Some teams can flip a switch. Clearly the Bucks can’t.

Milwaukee is the third team in playoff history to have the best record in the regular season and fall behind 3-0 in a playoff series. The other two: 2004-05 Suns, who lost in five in the West Finals vs. the Spurs, and the 2000-01 Spurs, who were swept in the West Finals vs Lakers.

Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings vs. Miami. The under is 8-3 in the previous 11.

Milwaukee Bucks

This could be the last game as coach of the Bucks for Mike Budenholzer. Fabulous regular-season coach but seems too be a bit too rigid in the playoffs. For example, the Bucks went up 2-0 in last year’s East Finals against Toronto. Dinos coach Nick Nurse then switched Kawhi Leonard on to Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo and that changed everything. Budenholzer stubbornly didn’t adjust accordingly and Toronto won four games in a row.

The Greek Freak has been good but not MVP-calibre in this series. He had 21 points, 16 rebounds and nine assists in Friday’s loss but Milwaukee was outscored by 13 points with him on the floor. The Freak was 0-for-7 from three-point range and that remains the clear black hole in his game. It’s not impossible this is his final game in a Bucks uniform. He’s not a free agent until after next season, but if Giannis feels he has hit his ceiling there and flat-out tells the team he won’t re-sign, he could be dealt. One rumored leading destination (presuming in free agency)? Miami. Another? Toronto.

Miami Heat

The Heat outscored the Bucks 40-13 in the fourth quarter on Friday — the biggest fourth-quarter margin in NBA playoff history. After a bit of an offensively disappointing Game 3, Heat star Jimmy Butler bounced back with 30 points, seven rebounds and six assists Friday. His 19 free-throw attempts were only two fewer than the entire Bucks team. Butler’s 17 points in the fourth quarter were obviously more than Milwaukee had overall in that quarter. Butler joined Heat legend Dwyane Wade (he has been seen as one of the virtual fans in this series) as the only Heat players in franchise history to score at least 25 points in the second half of multiple playoff games within a postseason.

Miami has improved so much this year thanks in large part to the emergence of young big man Bam Adebayo to an All-Star level. He had 20 points and 16 rebounds Friday and the Bucks just don’t have an answer for him. Andre Iguodala was questionable with a sprained ankle but did play – albeit only 11 minutes. Canadian Kelly Olynyk, who gets a handful of minutes as a reserve, didn’t go with an ankle injury.

NBA Prediction: Who Will Win Bucks vs. Heat?

Injuries

Milwaukee

Eric Bledsoe (PG)

Prob Wed Hamstring - 30 / 08 / 20

George Hill (PG)

Prob Mon Finger - 30 / 08 / 20

George Hill (PG)

Prob Mon Hamstring - 24 / 08 / 20

George Hill (PG)

Out Thurs Rest - 13 / 08 / 20

Ersan Ilyasova (PF)

Ques Sat Elbow - 12 / 08 / 20

Eric Bledsoe (PG)

Prob Thurs Knee - 11 / 08 / 20

Donte DiVincenzo (SG)

Prob Thurs Elbow - 11 / 08 / 20

Wesley Matthews (SG)

Prob Tues Groin - 11 / 08 / 20

Brook Lopez (C)

Out Tues Rest - 04 / 08 / 20

Wesley Matthews (SG)

Ques Thurs Calf - 03 / 08 / 20

Miami

Gabe Vincent (SG)

Ques Sun Knee - 04 / 10 / 20

Goran Dragic (PG)

Prob Sun Foot - 01 / 10 / 20

Gabe Vincent (SG)

Ques Wed Knee - 22 / 09 / 20

Andre Iguodala (SG)

Prob Sat Back - 18 / 09 / 20

Kelly Olynyk (PF)

Prob Tues Knee - 07 / 09 / 20

Jae Crowder (SF)

Prob Tues Ankle - 07 / 09 / 20

Kelly Olynyk (PF)

Prob Sun Knee - 03 / 09 / 20

Andre Iguodala (SG)

Ques Fri Ankle - 02 / 09 / 20

Jae Crowder (SF)

Prob Mon Ankle - 29 / 08 / 20

Derrick Jones Jr. (SF)

Ques Mon Ankle - 23 / 08 / 20

Injuries

Milwaukee

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Eric Bledsoe (PG)	Prob Wed	Hamstring - 30 / 08 / 20	1-3	2-3	+ -
Bledsoe has a strained right hamstring, but he is expected to play in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference second round versus the Heat.
George Hill (PG)	Prob Mon	Finger - 30 / 08 / 20	1-3	2-3	+ -
Hill is likely to take on the Heat in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference second round despite a finger injury.
George Hill (PG)	Prob Mon	Hamstring - 24 / 08 / 20	3-3	4-3	+ -
Hill is managing a left hamstring injury but is likely to be available for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference first round versus the Magic.
George Hill (PG)	Out Thurs	Rest - 13 / 08 / 20	5-5	6-5	+ -
Hill will receive a day of rest and will not be available against the Grizzlies on Thursday.
Ersan Ilyasova (PF)	Ques Sat	Elbow - 12 / 08 / 20	5-6	6-6	+ -
Ilyasova is nursing a right elbow sprain, and it is uncertain if it will interfere with his status against the Magic in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference first round.
Eric Bledsoe (PG)	Prob Thurs	Knee - 11 / 08 / 20	5-6	6-6	+ -
Bledsoe sat out the last game with a right knee soreness, but he is likely to be active for Thursday's battle with the Grizzlies.
Donte DiVincenzo (SG)	Prob Thurs	Elbow - 11 / 08 / 20	5-6	6-6	+ -
DiVincenzo missed the previous game due to a right elbow contusion, but it is anticipated that he will face the Grizzlies on Thursday.
Wesley Matthews (SG)	Prob Tues	Groin - 11 / 08 / 20	5-6	6-6	+ -
Matthews has a sore right adductor, but he is likely to take the court in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round versus the Magic.
Brook Lopez (C)	Out Tues	Rest - 04 / 08 / 20	6-9	9-7	+ -
Lopez will receive a day of rest and will not suit up against the Nets on Tuesday.
Wesley Matthews (SG)	Ques Thurs	Calf - 03 / 08 / 20	7-9	10-7	+ -
Matthews missed the last game battling soreness in his right calf, and it is unknown if he will be in Thursday's lineup against the Heat.

Miami

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Gabe Vincent (SG)	Ques Sun	Knee - 04 / 10 / 20	4-0	2-2	+ -
Vincent has a sore right knee, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Lakers in Game 6 of the NBA Finals.
Goran Dragic (PG)	Prob Sun	Foot - 01 / 10 / 20	5-1	3-3	+ -
Dragic suffered a torn plantar fascia in his left foot. It is expected that he will be available for Game 6 of the NBA Finals versus the Lakers.
Gabe Vincent (SG)	Ques Wed	Knee - 22 / 09 / 20	6-3	6-3	+ -
Vincent is battling a sore right knee, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Lakers in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
Andre Iguodala (SG)	Prob Sat	Back - 18 / 09 / 20	7-3	6-4	+ -
Iguodala is dealing with back spasms, but is likely to take on the Celtics in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Kelly Olynyk (PF)	Prob Tues	Knee - 07 / 09 / 20	9-4	8-5	+ -
Olynyk has a right knee contusion, but he is likely to suit up against the Bucks in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference second round.
Jae Crowder (SF)	Prob Tues	Ankle - 07 / 09 / 20	9-4	8-5	+ -
Crowder is nursing a left ankle sprain, but he is expected to play in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference second round versus the Bucks.
Kelly Olynyk (PF)	Prob Sun	Knee - 03 / 09 / 20	11-4	9-6	+ -
Olynyk is dealing with a right knee contusion, but he is expected to play in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference second round versus the Bucks.
Andre Iguodala (SG)	Ques Fri	Ankle - 02 / 09 / 20	12-4	9-7	+ -
Iguodala is battling a right ankle sprain, and it is unknown if he will take on the Bucks in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference second round.
Jae Crowder (SF)	Prob Mon	Ankle - 29 / 08 / 20	13-4	9-8	+ -
Crowder is managing a left ankle injury but is projected to suit up for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference second round against the Bucks.
Derrick Jones Jr. (SF)	Ques Mon	Ankle - 23 / 08 / 20	14-4	10-8	+ -
Jones Jr. is heading into Game 4 of the Eastern Conference first round versus the Pacers with an uncertain status due to a sprained left ankle.