Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat Game 3 Prediction, NBA Odds

Jordan Ramsay | Updated Apr 21, 2023

After being stomped by the Bucks in Game 2, can the Heat rally back when the series moves home to Miami for Game 3 on Saturday?

April 22, 2023, 7:30 PM ET
American Airlines Arena
Pointspread -2 -110
Moneyline -136
Over / Under o +215.5


Betting Action


Pointspread +2 -110
Moneyline +113
Over / Under u +215.5


Betting Action


The Bucks were missing superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo against Miami in Game 2 of their first-round playoff series on Wednesday, but it didn’t matter as Milwaukee dominated the Heat 138-122 to tie things up at one win apiece.

Saturday’s Game 3 in Miami sees the Bucks enter as 5-point favourites to win on the NBA odds, with a total of 220.5.

Bucks vs. Heat NBA Betting Odds

The home side has dominated this head-to-head series, winning nine of the last 10 games dating back to October 2021. High scoring has been a staple, with the Over hitting in seven of those 10 games.

Milwaukee covered the spread as 6.5-point favourites in Game 2, but they’re still just 2-4 against the spread in their last six games. While they’ve won 15 of their last 18 road contests, it’s worth noting they’ve lost four of their last five games in Miami. The Bucks are currently the favourites to win both the Eastern Conference (+122) and the NBA championship (+243).

The Heat have proven they can put points on the board as they’ve hit the Over in seven of their last nine games. They’re likely glad to be returning to their home court, where they’ve won seven of the last nine games. Miami remains a long shot to win the East (+5490) and the NBA championship (+13,500).

Milwaukee is a -500 favourite to win the series, while the Heat are +327 underdogs.

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks didn’t need Antetokounmpo, who was ruled out with a back contusion, on Wednesday. Brook Lopez led the way with 25 points and four rebounds, while Jrue Holiday finished with 24 points and 11 assists. Pat Connaughton added a crucial 22 points off the bench. Milwaukee shot 25 of 49 from beyond the arc, matching an NBA record for threes in a game.

The story of Game 3 will be the status of Antetokounmpo, a finalist for NBA MVP. The Greek Freak went down in the first quarter of Sunday’s Game 1 loss after taking contact from Miami’s Kevin Love while driving to the net. As of Friday night, Antetokounmpo’s status remains uncertain for Game 3. The two-time MVP did individual work before the Bucks’ practice on Friday, but didn’t participate with the team.

Miami Heat

Miami had six different players score at least 15 points in Game 2, but it wasn’t enough to keep pace with Milwaukee’s long range shooting accuracy. Jimmy Butler was the top scorer for the Heat, finishing with 25 points. Bam Adebayo added 18 points and Gabe Vincent had 16. Miami is averaging 114.3 points per game over their last 10 contests while also giving up 114.3 ppg.

Like the Bucks, the Heat were also missing a key piece of their lineup on Wednesday. Tyler Herro, who broke his hand in Game 1, won’t play the rest of this series and likely won’t see the court again this season unless Miami makes a run to the NBA Finals. It’s a big loss for the team as Herro averaged 20.1 ppg during the regular season and the Heat average a league-low 109.5 ppg as a team.

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