The Boston Celtics are in danger of falling behind 3-1 in their playoff series against the Milwaukee Bucks because of their inability to keep Giannis Antetokounmpo from the charity stripe. The C’s are short home favourites for Game 4, but they’ll have to come up with a better plan of stopping the Greek Freak to even the series.

NBA Playoffs Point Spread and Betting Analysis

Milwaukee improved to 6-1 straight up and against the spread in the playoffs this year. The club has scored 123 points in back-to-back games and the over is now 5-1 in the last six contests.

The Celtics are a dreadful 3-12-1 in their last 16 home games including Game 3 loss as 1.5-point faves. The over is 18-7-1 in the last 26 games between these two sides.

Barring any last-hour line movement, the Bucks will be underdogs for a second straight contest. The club have played with dog tags just nine times this season and own a 7-2 mark against the spread in those spots.

Sports Interaction lists the Deer as heavy chalk to win the series at -769 and is offering underdog bettors +405 odds to back the C’s in the series.

The public seems to be on the Bucks in Game 4. About 63 percent of the spread action is on Milwaukee at +1.5 and 69 percent of total bettors are expecting the game to go over the 221-point line.

Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee’s bench stepped up in a major way in Game 3. The Bucks’ reserves outscored the C’s bench mob 42-16 with George Hill and Pat Connaughton chipping in with 21 and 19 points apiece.

Head coach Mike Budenholzer Game 2 adjustment to his starting lineup seems to be working. He moved Sterling Brown to the bench and inserted Nikola Mirotic in his place. Mirotic’s shooting ability opens up more space for Antetokounmpo to operate.

The Greek Freak has 40 free throw attempts in the last two games and the Bucks outscored the Celtics in the paint by a 52-24 margin in Game 3.

Boston Celtics

Jayson Tatum finally showed up in the series with his performance in Game 3. The second-year wing scored 20 points and collected 11 rebounds. He had scored just nine combined points in the previous two games.

One troubling note: he still can’t find his 3-point range. Tatum is 0-for-8 on 3-point attempts in the series.

BUCKS

Away

109

CELTICS

Home

111

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Predictions

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