The Milwaukee Bucks staved off elimination with a 97-86 win over the Boston Celtics in Game 6 of their Eastern Conference first round series. Now it’s down to a winner-takes-all Game 7 situation on Saturday night. The home team has won all six games so far in this series. Will that trend continue or can the Bucks spring an upset in this NBA matchup?

NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis

In a Game 7, home-court advantage will obviously provide a huge edge. The Celtics have covered four straight at home and are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS loss. The Celtics should feel confident based on how they have performed at home this season, going 28-14 and 3-0 in the playoffs.

Milwaukee will be dealing with a number of trends working against it heading in to this contest including a 0-4 ATS record in its last four road games. They are also 1-4 ATS in their last five following a win. The Bucks will have to buck some trends to win on the road in this spot.

Milwaukee Bucks

Is Milwaukee talented enough to advance to the second round? The Bucks are just 2-6 in their last eight games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Tough defense will be key after Milwaukee held the Celtics to 86 points including just 10-of-36 from beyond the arc in Game 6. Defense has been the name of this game as the Celtics are averaging 108.3 points per game in their three wins in this series and just 93.3 in the losses.

All eyes will be on Giannis Antetokounmpo for Milwaukee after he led the way with 31 points and 14 rebounds in Game 6. He’s carried the team but the Bucks success has been contingent on who steps up to help him out. If the Bucks get strong contributions from Khris Middleton and at least one other player, they could pull this off. Absent of that, they’re a long shot.

Boston Celtics

History is certainly on Boston’s side heading in to Game 7. In the history of the NBA, there have been just 26 Game 7 road winners in 128 games. The Celtics really struggled from the field and on the boards in Milwaukee on Thursday night and will need to improve in both areas if they are going to rebound at home. In their three wins, they’ve outrebounded the Bucks each time.

Meanwhile, a pair of young stars might very well be the x-factors for Boston in rookie forward Jayson Tatum and second-year forward Jaylen Brown. Al Horford has been good in the series but it’s Tatum and Brown that could make the difference. That tandem hit just 12-of-29 shot attempts from the field with five turnovers in Game 6. They’ve contributed 31.6 points per game in the wins. If they can cut down on the mistakes and shoot more efficiently, then the Celtics will win Game 7.

Injuries

Milwaukee

John Henson (C)

Doub Sat Back - 20 / 04 / 18

Tony Snell (SG)

Prob Mon Ankle - 08 / 04 / 18

Sterling Brown (SG)

Ques Mon Personal - 07 / 04 / 18

Shabazz Muhammad (SG)

Ques Mon Ankle - 07 / 04 / 18

Khris Middleton (SF)

Prob Fri Knee - 30 / 03 / 18

Thon Maker (C)

Out indefinitely Groin - 27 / 03 / 18

Tyler Zeller (C)

Prob Wed Back - 17 / 03 / 18

Jabari Parker (PF)

Ques Wed Rest - 28 / 02 / 18

Matthew Dellavedova (PG)

Prob Wed Ankle - 04 / 02 / 18

Jason Terry (SG)

Prob Sun Personal - 31 / 01 / 18

Boston

Marcus Smart (PG)

Prob Thurs Thumb - 01 / 05 / 18

Marcus Morris (PF)

Prob Sat Thigh - 27 / 04 / 18

Greg Monroe (C)

Ques Tues Illness - 17 / 04 / 18

Terry Rozier (PG)

Prob Sun Finger - 12 / 04 / 18

Guerschon Yabusele (PF)

Prob Wed Knee - 08 / 04 / 18

Shane Larkin (PG)

Prob Fri Illness - 02 / 04 / 18

Jabari Bird (SG)

Prob Sun Back - 14 / 03 / 18

Daniel Theis (PF)

out for season Knee - 11 / 03 / 18

Aron Baynes (C)

Prob Mon Elbow - 23 / 02 / 18

Al Horford (PF)

Ques Sat Head - 24 / 01 / 18

Injuries

Milwaukee

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
John Henson (C)	Doub Sat	Back - 20 / 04 / 18	2-3	3-2	+ -
Henson is dealing with back soreness and is not expected to be available for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference first round against the Celtics.
Tony Snell (SG)	Prob Mon	Ankle - 08 / 04 / 18	4-5	6-3	+ -
Snell is dealing with an injured ankle but is expected to be available for Monday's matchup with the Magic.
Sterling Brown (SG)	Ques Mon	Personal - 07 / 04 / 18	4-6	7-3	+ -
Brown is away from the team while tending to personal matters and it is unclear if he will be available for Monday's game against the Magic.
Shabazz Muhammad (SG)	Ques Mon	Ankle - 07 / 04 / 18	4-6	7-3	+ -
Muhammad missed the last game with a right ankle sprain and it is unclear if he will play against the Magic on Monday.
Khris Middleton (SF)	Prob Fri	Knee - 30 / 03 / 18	7-8	11-4	+ -
Middleton sustained a knee injury last game but is expected to be available for Friday's game against the Lakers.
Thon Maker (C)	Out indefinitely	Groin - 27 / 03 / 18	8-8	12-4	+ -
Maker has been held out of action due to a right groin strain and it is uncertain how much time he will need to recuperate.
Tyler Zeller (C)	Prob Wed	Back - 17 / 03 / 18	9-12	17-4	+ -
Zeller has sat out the last two games with a back injury but is expected to play against the Clippers on Wednesday.
Jabari Parker (PF)	Ques Wed	Rest - 28 / 02 / 18	11-19	21-9	+ -
Parker is unlikely to suit up Wednesday against the Pistons as he could be given the day to rest.
Matthew Dellavedova (PG)	Prob Wed	Ankle - 04 / 02 / 18	15-23	24-14	+ -
Dellavedova has been sidelined with a sprained right ankle but is likely to play Wednesday against the 76ers.
Jason Terry (SG)	Prob Sun	Personal - 31 / 01 / 18	16-24	24-16	+ -
Terry has missed two-consecutive games while tending to a personal matter but will likely return against the Nets on Sunday.

Boston

player (position)	status		ats*current	o/u*	notes
Marcus Smart (PG)	Prob Thurs	Thumb - 01 / 05 / 18	7-4	5-6	+ -
Smart is dealing with an injured thumb but is expected to be available for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals against the 76ers.
Marcus Morris (PF)	Prob Sat	Thigh - 27 / 04 / 18	8-5	6-7	+ -
Morris is battling a thigh injury but is expected to be available for Game 7 of the Eastern Conference first round against the Bucks.
Greg Monroe (C)	Ques Tues	Illness - 17 / 04 / 18	12-6	10-8	+ -
Monroe is ailing from an illness and it is uncertain if he will play against the Bucks in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference first round.
Terry Rozier (PG)	Prob Sun	Finger - 12 / 04 / 18	13-6	11-8	+ -
Rozier is dealing with a finger injury but is expected to be available for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference first round against the Bucks.
Guerschon Yabusele (PF)	Prob Wed	Knee - 08 / 04 / 18	14-8	14-8	+ -
Yabusele has sat out the last two games due to a knee injury but is expected play Wednesday against the Nets.
Shane Larkin (PG)	Prob Fri	Illness - 02 / 04 / 18	16-9	16-9	+ -
Larkin has been absent from the lineup during the previous two games due to an illness but is expected to play Friday against the Bulls.
Jabari Bird (SG)	Prob Sun	Back - 14 / 03 / 18	22-12	18-16	+ -
Bird has missed the last two games with a back injury but is likely to play against the Pelicans on Sunday.
Daniel Theis (PF)	out for season	Knee - 11 / 03 / 18	23-12	19-16	+ -
Theis had season-ending surgery after suffering a torn left meniscus.
Aron Baynes (C)	Prob Mon	Elbow - 23 / 02 / 18	28-14	24-17-1	+ -
Baynes missed the last game with left elbow soreness but is expected to suit up for Monday's matchup with the Grizzlies.
Al Horford (PF)	Ques Sat	Head - 24 / 01 / 18	35-19	30-23-1	+ -
Horford sat out the last game due to a head injury and his status for Saturday's contest against the Warriors is uncertain.

Bucks vs. Celtics Prediction