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Andrew Rogers
76ers vs. Heat: Game 4 Prediction, NBA Playoff Odds
The Philadelphia 76ers had trouble closing games out in the regular season – but they’ve reversed that trend completely heading into Game 4 of their Eastern Conference first-round series with the host Miami Heat. The 76ers were one of the worst fourth-quarter teams in the league but are averaging 33.3 points over the final 12 minutes of their first three games against Miami – and have a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series as a result.
NBA Point Spread and Betting Analysis
The Heat are a modest underdog despite holding home-court advantage – but they do have one thing going for them, having covered in four consecutive games following a double-digit home loss. That said, the 76ers are riding a number of positive trends heading into this one: they’ve covered 13 of their previous 17 games overall, are 5-1 ATS in their past six road contests and have nine covers in their last 11 following a straight-up victory of more than 10 points.
From a totals perspective, fans and bettors alike should expect Miami to clamp down on the defensive end; the Heat are 0-3-1 O/U in their past four games after allowing 125 or more points in their previous outing. And that same trend has impacted the 76ers similarly: they’ve gone below the number in seven of their past eight games after hanging at least 125 points on an opponent their previous time out. But Philadelphia is 4-1 O/U in its past five games overall heading into this NBA matchup.
Philadelphia 76ers
The 76ers’ fourth-quarter scoring prowess has been well documented, but this team is also rather prolific in the opening 12 minutes of the game – making it a terrific option in both the first-quarter moneyline (-137) and the race to 20 points (-137). They’re even more dangerous now that center Joel Embiid is back in the lineup; Embiid, still recovering from a fractured orbital bone, had 23 points and three blocked shots in 30 minutes in his playoff debut last time out.
Miami Heat
Every game in the series has been decided by double digits – and there’s serious money to be had if you believe the Heat will bounce back with another 10-point victory as it did in Game 2. The Heat are installed at +1,100 to win by between 10 and 13 points – but it might be a stretch to expect an even larger margin of victory, with Miami listed at +2,500 to win by between 14 and 16 points. The Heat are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 after failing to cover in their previous game.
