Zhang Weili vs. Amanda Lemos: UFC 292 Odds, Prediction

Weili is a -365 favourite on the MMA odds while Lemos is a +260 underdog.

Weili Zhang -335
Amanda Lemos +300

Zhang Weili UFC 292 Odds

The 34-year-old Weili, from China, is the women’s UFC strawweight champion and ranked as the No. 3 pound-for-pound female behind Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko. Weili has a record of 23-3 and also was a former KLF strawweight champion. She has credited Ronda Rousey and especially her fight against Liz Carmouche in 2013 as motivation to pursue MMA full time.

“Magnum” first won the UFC belt via first-round TKO (knees and punches) of Jessica Andrade in August 2019 and successfully defended in March 2020 with a split decision win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Alas, Weili then lost back-to-back bouts to Rose Namajunas by first-round KO (head kick) and split decision.

Last June, Weili bounced back in style with a brilliant spinning back-fist victory over Jedrzejczyk in a non-title bout. Carla Esparza eventually took the belt from Namajunas, but Weili took it from Esparza via second-round submission (rear-naked choke) last November.

“When I beat Carla and became the champion again, I think I became a better version of myself, exceeding my previous [self as champion],” Weili said. “Everyone in life, there are so many things we need to overcome every single day. We need to be disciplined. I think the win made me feel satisfied that I became a better version of myself. The first time I became UFC champion it was so exciting, but what came to me with the honor was the pressure, a burden on my shoulder. Now I know that pressure and burden is given by myself.”

She remains the only male or female UFC champion from China. The 5-foot-4 Weili has a reach of 63 inches and her fights average 11:02. She lands 5.79 significant strikes per minute with 47 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.06 with 53 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.97 per 15 minutes with 34 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 66 per cent.

Weili has 11 wins by KO/TKO, eight by submission and four by decision. Two of her losses are via the judge and one by KO/TKO. Weili’s three victories in UFC strawweight title fights are third most in divisional history, and her two knockout victories are also tied for third most.

For Saturday, her favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +150, followed by decision at +280 and submission at +395.

Amanda Lemos UFC 292 Odds

The 36-year-old Lemos is from Brazil but has only 15 bouts under her bout due to a later start in the sport and also two-year suspension last decade and is 13-2. She is ranked No. 5 in the division and it’s

her first title shot – probably the last at her age unless she nearly pulls the upset and earns a rematch (obviously a win is always possible).

“Amandinha” is 8-1 in her past nine bouts – that loss via first-round submission (arm-triangle choke) to Jessica Andrade in April 2022; Weili had no trouble with Andrade a few years ago. Lemos comes off a November third-round TKO (punches) win over Marina Rodriguez.

The 5-foot-4 Lemos has a reach of 65 inches and is a southpaw. Her fights average 7:22, the shortest in divisional history. She lands 4.51 significant strikes per minute with 57 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.97 with 50 per cent accuracy. Her takedown defence is 1.12 per 15 minutes with 55 per cent defence, and her takedown defence is 81 per cent. She has eight wins by KO/TKO, three by submission and two by decision and one loss each by KO/TKO and submission.

Her five stoppage victories in UFC strawweight competition are tied for the most in divisional history and her five knockdowns landed are most in divisional history. For Saturday, Lemos’ favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +400, followed by points at +900 and submission at +1000.

The over-under is 3.5 rounds with the under a -220 favourite. That it does the distance is +240 with no at -335.