Usman vs. Covington: UFC 245 Main Card Predictions, Odds

Payton Matthews
December 13, 2019

It’s not hyperbole to say that Saturday’s UFC 245 card from T-Mobile Arena is one of the best in organization history with three championship fights – it’s only the fifth time in UFC history that has happened. This event is headlined by a welterweight bout between champion Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington. The main card is expected to begin at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view. Here’s a look at the three championship bouts and their MMA betting odds.

Kamaru Usman (15-1) vs. Colby Covington (15-1)

These guys are a lot alike and not just record-wise. Both were All-American college wrestlers, with Covington in NCAA Division I at Oregon State and Usman in Division II at the University of Nebraska at Kearney. Yet both win by decision as professional fighters 53 per cent of the time. Usman has just one submission victory. The 32-year-old Usman was born in Nigeria – hence the nickname “the Nigerian Nightmare” — but his family immigrated to the United States when he was 8. His lone loss was in his second pro fight in 2013 in the CFA organization. Usman won the belt over Tyron Woodley by unanimous decision in March. Usman is the only welterweight in history to start his UFC career with 10 consecutive victories.

Covington, a 31-year-old American, is considered one of the villains of the UFC and ranked No. 2 in the division; he has an apt nickname of “Chaos.” He hasn’t always seen eye-to-eye with the UFC. Covington won the interim welterweight title in June 2018 with a unanimous decision win over former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos. Covington was then supposed to fight Woodley but claimed he couldn’t because of nasal surgery. The UFC didn’t like that answer considering there had been plenty of time ahead of that potential fight for Covington to have the procedure done. So, Woodley fought Darren Till for the interim belt and Covington was stripped of the title. He returned to the Octagon in August and beat Robbie Lawler by UD. Covington’s 58 takedowns landed in welterweight competition are most among active fighters in the weight class.

Kamaru Usman -165
Colby Covington +130

Prediction: Usman by decision.

Max Holloway (21-4) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (20-1)

Holloway, a 28-year-old from Hawaii, will become the first fighter to compete in 20 featherweight bouts in UFC history. In 2017 at age 25, he became the youngest in UFC history to reach 15 career victories in the organization. He has won 13 straight fights in the division since a loss to Conor McGregor in August 2013. However, that doesn’t mean “Blessed” is on a 13-fight winning streak. He tried to add the lightweight title at UFC 236 in April but was largely dominated in a unanimous decision loss to Dustin Poirier. Holloway bounced back with a title-defending victory over Frankie Edgar in July. Holloway’s 16 victories in UFC featherweight competition are the most in the division’s history as are his eight knockout wins.

Volkanovski, a 31-year-old Aussie aptly nicknamed Alexander “the Great,” gets his first title shot in the UFC and is ranked as the No. 1 contender. He is a former Pacific Xtreme Combat and Australian Fighting Championship featherweight champion on a 17-fight winning streak. This will be Volkanovski’s eighth fight in the UFC and he comes off a unanimous decision win over long-time featherweight king Jose Aldo in May. By comparison, Holloway is 2-0 vs. Aldo, winning both by third-round TKO.

Max Holloway -195
Alexander Volkanovski +155

Prediction: Holloway by KO/TKO

Amanda Nunes (18-4) vs. Germaine de Randamie (9-3)

Nunes, a 31-year-old from Brazil, is the pound-for-pound queen of the UFC and arguably the most dominant fighter alive right now, male or female. She holds both the bantamweight and featherweight titles and plans to defend the latter next time out. Nunes is the fourth fighter in UFC history to hold two belts and none of the previous three have defended both. “Lioness” has won nine in a row, beating former champion Holly Holm by first-round TKO in July. Nunes’ six victories in women’s UFC title fights are tied with Ronda Rousey and Joanna Jedrzejczyk for most in organization history.

De Randamie, 35 and from the Netherlands, was the UFC’s inaugural featherweight champion. That was the newest UFC division and she won that belt against Holm in February 2017 before being stripped of it and moving to bantamweight. De Randamie’s only loss in the past eight fights was at bantamweight in a non-title fight against Nunes in November 2013 by first-round TKO. With an upset here, de Randamie will become the eighth fighter in UFC history to hold belts in two divisions. The Dutchwoman comes off a 16-second TKO win over Aspen Ladd in July, tied for the fastest knockout in women’s UFC history.