UFC Vegas 91 Odds, Prediction: Matheus Nicolau vs. Alex Perez
Nicolau is a -175 favourite to win on the MMA odds and Perez is +145 for this scheduled five-rounder.
Matheus Nicolau UFC Vegas 91 Odds
Alexandre Pantoja is the current UFC flyweight champion and the 31-year-old Nicolau, from Brazil, is ranked No. 5 in the division with a professional MMA record of 19-3-1 that dates to 2010. He started 3-1 in the UFC before being released by the organization in February 2019 so Nicolau fought a couple of times in other organizations before returning.
Overall, Nicolau had a six-fight winning streak snapped when he was most recently in the Octagon in April of last year when he lost by first-round knockout (knee and elbows) to Brandon Royval, who is the No. 1 UFC flyweight contender. Nicolau thought he would get a title shot with a victory and predicted a finish “before the third round.” He wasn’t wrong.
Nicolau has been scheduled to fight Manel Kape twice since then. The first in January was canceled as Kape was overweight at the weigh-in. It was rescheduled for this card, but Kape withdrew for unknown reasons and he was replaced by Alex Perez. The first meeting in March 2021 between Nicolau and Kape resulted in a split decision for Nicolau.
“Right away when we got the news that Manel was out, we got frustrated,” Nicolau told reporters this week. “I was thinking about him since last year, like we started preparation around November, December because the fight was in the beginning of January. Right in the moment, you get frustrated, you get worried like, ‘Oh, is my fight going to get postponed? Who are they going to get to fight? Is it a ranked guy or not?’ But on the same day, we closed the fight against Alex, so that was good, and right away I changed my mentality. I was already focused on Alex.”
The 5-foot-6 Nicolau has a reach of 66 inches and his bouts average 11:14. He lands 3.66 significant strikes per minute with 53 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.14 with 66 per cent defence – the highest rate among active fighters in the weight class. His takedown average is 1.48 per 15 minutes with 45 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 93 per cent.
Nicolau has nine wins by decision, five by submission and five by KO/TKO. His six knockdowns landed in UFC flyweight competition are tied for third-most in divisional history behind Deiveson Figueiredo (11) and John Lineker (seven). For Saturday, Nicolau’s favoured method of victory is by submission at +200, followed by decision at +275 and KO/TKO/DQ at +450. A draw is +5000. To win in 60 seconds or less, he’s +2200.
Alex Perez UFC Vegas 91 Odds
The 32-year-old Perez, from California, is ranked No. 8 in the flyweight division with a professional MMA record of 24-8. He also does some grappling as Perez faced two-time NCAA champion wrestler Roman Bravo-Young in a Brazilian jiu-jitsu match in June 2023, and it ended in a draw.
Perez enters on a three-fight UFC losing streak, which began with a 2020 first-round submission loss (guillotine choke) to then-champ Deiveson Figueiredo. Then Perez lost in July 2022 via first-round submission (neck crank) to current flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja.
We noted Perez was a short-notice replacement for this bout as he just fought on March 2 and lost by unanimous decision to Muhammad Mokaev. Perez was originally scheduled to face Tagir Ulanbekov on June 15 at UFC Fight Night 243 but pulled from that to fight on this card as a replacement for Manel Kape. Perez was to fight Kape in March 2023 but had to withdraw himself due to injury.
The 5-foot-6 Perez has a reach of 65 inches and his fights average just 6:38 overall. His average fight time of 6:02 in UFC flyweight competition is second-shortest in divisional history behind Daniel Lacerda (4:19). He lands 4.12 significant strikes per minute with 46 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.14 with 59 per cent defence. His takedown average is 2.26 per 15 minutes with 44 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 82 per cent.
Perez has 12 wins by decision, seven by submission and five by KO/TKO. He has recorded one of 17 finishes in UFC history stemming from leg kicks. He accomplished the feat at UFC 250, beating Jussier Formiga in June 2020. That is Perez’s last win.
For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +450, followed by decision at +500 and submission at +800. That he wins in 60 seconds or less is +3500.
On the how the fight will end prop for either fighter, decision is +120 with submission +175 and KO/TKO/DQ +200. The over-under is 3.5 rounds with the over a -130 favorite. That it goes the distance is +120 with no at -165.
