UFC Vegas 34 Odds: Jared Cannonier vs. Kelvin Gastelum Fight Night Prediction
Vegas 34’s main card features No. 3 middleweight contender Jared Cannonier making his 2021 debut against No. 9 ranked Kelvin Gastelum. There’s been a lot of movement in the middleweight rankings this year and a loss for either fighter would be disastrous to their title-fight aspirations.
Cannonier is a -155 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Gastelum is a +120 underdog.
Jared Cannonier UFC Vegas 34 Odds
It was worst case scenario in Cannonier’s (13-5 MMA record) last fight. He fought Robert Whittaker at UFC 254 last October, losing the three-round fight by unanimous decision and suffering a broken arm in the first-round. That injury has kept him on the sidelines for almost 10 months. It’s something the 37-year-old can’t afford to go through again if he wants a title shot. Prior to the Whittaker loss, however, Cannonier looked dominant. He jumped up to middleweight in 2018 and promptly won his first three fights by first or second-round TKOs before running into Whittaker. If Cannonier can get back in the win column on Saturday, he’ll put himself in a position to potentially land a title shot in 2022.
There’s a reason “Tha Killa Gorilla” was high up in title contention before his UFC 254 loss. He’s a vicious striker with a long reach. He’s also perfectly capable of taking some damage to get in the pocket. Cannonier has a six-inch reach advantage and two-inch leg reach advantage over Gastelum. He likes to walk down his opponent and he’s at his most dangerous when he patiently waits for power shots. Cannonier is a quick, clean, kicker, and he’ll chop at his opponents’ base with his legs before unleashing his heavy hands. He’s strong against the fence and he’s able to generate devastating power with very technical punches.
Kelvin Gastelum UFC Vegas 34 Odds
Gastelum (16-7 MMA record) had his own recent run-in with Whittaker, also losing to him by unanimous decision in his last fight. He’s been on a free-fall since losing the interim championship to current middleweight champ Israel Adesanya at UFC 236 in 2019. Including the loss to Adesanya (unanimous decision), Gastelum has dropped four of his last five fights. This will be his third fight in 2021. Gastelum’s last win came in February at UFC 258. He took down Ian Heinisch by unanimous decision, before going on to lose to Whittaker in April. Another loss on Saturday will knock Gastelum out of the Top-10 and leave him with a long road back to title contention.
This is definitely not the first fight Gastelum comes in as the shorter fighter, so don’t expect him to be overwhelmed by Cannonier’s reach. Gastelum likes to bounce in and out of range and dare fighters to make a mistake. He’s strong and he holds knockout power in both hands, particularly the left. Patience is one of his strengths and he’s comfortable moving around the outside until he finds his target. Despite being more of a striker, the ground might be the best place to take this fight for Gastelum. He has a solid wrestling base and he’d have a distinct advantage over Cannonier. Regardless of where the fight ends up, Gastelum is a legit threat.
UFC Vegas 34 Prediction: Cannonier vs. Gastelum
These are two knockout specialists, so I’d be surprised to see this fight end up on the ground, unless Gastelum doesn’t think his striking will match Cannonier. It’s really a matter of who lands the knockout shot first, but the smart money is on Cannonier in the third-round.
