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Edgar Chaput
UFC Fight Night Odds, Prediction: Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa
Welterweights Tony Ferguson and Michael Chiesa have several notable wins under their belt. That said, things change as time elapses. Both are now mostly likely in the twilight of their MMA careers. Worse, each is suffering a significant losing streak. Streaks do one of two things: continue or end. Somebody is due to savour the sweet taste of victory at the Etihad Arena in the United Arab Emirates.
Our MMA odds deem Michael Chiesa as a big favourite. He’s priced at -650 to win whereas Ferguson lags far behind at +425 to win.
Tony Ferguson UFC Fight Betting Odds
Tony Ferguson is an MMA stalwart. From the late aughts to June 2019, he was essentially unbeatable. During that time, he rode an incredible 12-match winning streak. However, the one they nickname “El Cucoy” has fallen in every one of his bouts since, a string of six consecutive defeats.
Among his most recent setbacks was UFC 274 in May 2022 against Michael Chandler. That concluded with a swift knockout in the sophomore round. He fared slightly better versus Nate Diaz at UFC 279, making it to the fourth round where his opponent subdued him via a guillotine choke. Ferguson attempted a comeback in the lightweight division for a tilt against Bobby Green at UFC 291 in July 2023 but was bested in the third round when Green got him in an arm-triangle choke. Most recently was a defeat to Paddy Pimblett in December of last year at UFC 296 via unanimous decision.
“El Cucoy” is a bit shorter than this weekend’s opponent, standing at 5-foot-11 to Chiesa’s 6-foot-1. He does, however, have a slightly superior reach at 76.5 inches to 75.5. When he wins – which hasn’t been in a while – half the time it comes via a KO or TKO, with 31 per cent by submission and the remaining 19 per cent courtesy of judges’ decision. He certainly enjoys being on the offensive, landing 4.94 significant hits per minute, although that opens him up to 4.41 every 60 seconds too. He’s not much of a grappler, performing only 0.39 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Michael Chiesa UFC Fight Night Betting Odds
Much like Ferguson, Michael Chiesa (alias “Maverick”) also started his career brightly, hence his solid 18-7 tally over the past dozen years. Funnily enough, back in 2016, these two fighters were supposed to meet in the octagon but “Maverick” had to eject at the last minute.
Interestingly, Chiesa has been out of action since July last year, making this bout a long-awaited return to the ring. This follows a two-year absence between 2021 and 2023. Seen from that angle, one can be forgiven for not always winning one’s tilts if injuries take their toll.
His last fight before the two-year back recovery came at UFC Fight 198 in November 2021 versus Sean Brady. That was a unanimous decision that went the other way. Flash forward to April 2023 where he was to tango with Li Jingliang at UFC 287. The latter had to pull out because his own back injury. Then came a defeat to Kevin Holland by choke submission at UFC 291 in July 2023. As one can see, it’s been a spotty career for three whole years.
His opponent may have a slightly superior arm reach, but Chiesa bests him with a 43-inch leg reach (Ferguson’s is 40.5). Here’s a statistic we don’t see every day: “Maverick” has never won any fight via KO or TKO. Successes have mostly come via submissions (61 per cent) or decision by the judges (39 per cent). That might explain why Chiesa’s stats don’t look as aggressive. He only lands 1.87 significant blows per minute. Conversely, he only takes 1.7 licks. He is also the complete opposite as far as grappling is concerned, performing 3.33 takedowns every 15 minutes.
