UFC Fight Night Mexico City Odds, Prediction: Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval

The UFC returns to Mexico City on Saturday for Fight Night 237. It’s a highly anticipated main event as former flyweight champion and current No. 1 challenger Brandon Moreno tries to get back to title contention against No. 3 Brandon Royval.

Moreno is a -300 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Royval is a +240 underdog.

Brandon Moreno UFC Fight Night Mexico City Odds

The 30-year-old Moreno from Tijuana will be one of five Mexican fighters featured on Saturday’s main card. Moreno is 27-7-2 in a professional MMA career that dates to 2011 and he is a two-time UFC flyweight champion, although he has never successfully defended the belt. After fighting to a majority draw, Moreno first won the UFC flyweight championship in a rematch against Deiveson Figueiredo in June 2021. Moreno lost the belt in the trilogy fight before retaking it in his fourth championship fight against Figueiredo in January 2023. He gave up the belt a second time with a split decision loss against current champion Alexandre Pantoja last July.

There’s already history between “The Assassin Baby” and Royval as the two fighters met in November 2020, with Moreno winning by first-round stoppage. It’s credited as a TKO by strikes, but Royval actually dislocated his shoulder during a scramble, which led to the finishing opportunity.

Moreno has continued to improve and sharpen his tools since facing Royval the first time around, but his aggression can lead him into dangerous situations. His last four wins have come by finishes, but he’s also lost two of his last four fights overall. A strong grappler, Moreno’s best bet on Saturday is to get Royval to the ground where he had the advantage four years ago.

Brandon Royval UFC Fight Night Mexico City Odds

Royval is a 31-year-old Denver, Colorado native who is 15-7 since his professional MMA debut in 2012. He is a former Legacy Fighting Alliance flyweight champion and he is coming off a UFC flyweight title shot against Pantoja in December. Royval lost that fight by unanimous decision, breaking a string of three straight victories that included a Performance of the Night bonus and a Fight of the Night bonus.

Win or lose, “Raw Dawg” has provided entertaining fights since his UFC debut in 2020. Royval’s first two fights, which were both second-round submission victories, each earned him Fight of the Night honours and six of his eight UFC fights have ended in finishes.

Royval’s career hit a bit of a snag with back-to-back losses a few years ago, but he’s largely managed to retool his skills. His longer frame has helped him become a striking threat at unexpected moments, but his strength on the ground remains a major red flag. Royval will need to take advantage of Moreno’s reckless aggressiveness and catch him with a few surprise shots if he is going to have a chance against the former champ.

UFC Fight Night Mexico City Prediction: Moreno vs. Royval

Moreno and Royval are both legit threats in the flyweight division, but there’s exposed weaknesses in each fighter. While Moreno’s strength leads him to be overly aggressive which can put him in bad situations, Royval lacks the well-rounded ability of a true contender. Unlike the first fight, I think this one will go the distance with a clear winner. Moreno wins by decision (+125).