UFC Fight Night Austin Odds, Prediction: Miesha Tate vs. Julia Avila

Payton Matthews
December 1, 2023

Avila is a -135 favourite to win on the MMA odds and Tate is a +110 underdog.

Miesha Tate UFC Fight Night Austin Odds

The 37-year-old Tate, who is from the Seattle area, is 19-9 in a career that dates way back to 2007 and she certainly has been one of the more important women in the sport as a former Strikeforce, FCF and UFC bantamweight champion. Tate didn’t fight from 2016-2020 because she joined ONE Championship as a vice president but left in 2021 to return to the Octagon.

No question her two most notable bouts were both for belts against former women’s pound-for-pound queen Ronda Rousey. She beat Tate in both by submission (armbar), with the first in Strikeforce, but the last fight in 2013 was very competitive. Tate won the bantamweight title in March 2016 with a fifth-round technical submission (rear-naked choke) of Holly Holm.

That likely will be the apex of Tate’s career as she lost the belt next time out via first-round submission to another women’s legend in Amanda Nunes in July 2016 and then lost again to Raquel Pennington via unanimous decision in November 2016 before deciding to step away. Since the return, “Cupcake” is 1-2 and last fought in July 2022 and beaten by Lauren Murphy. That was Tate’s flyweight debut and will be a one-off as she returns to 135 pounds.

Tate said she’s “very confident” heading into the fight with Avila and her previous move to flyweight was “an experiment” but that this might be her last fight.

The 5-foot-6 Tate has a reach of 65 inches and her fights average 12:47. She lands 2.61 strikes per minute with 44 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.10 with 51 per cent defence. Her takedown average is 1.88 per 15 minutes with 29 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 55 per cent.

Tate has eight wins by decision, seven by submission and four by KO/TKO. Tate’s two knockdowns landed in bantamweight competition are tied for second-most in divisional history behind Nunes’ three, and Tate’s 11 submission attempts are the most. Her four fight-night bonuses fin bantamweight fights are tied for second-most in divisional history behind Rousey’s seven.

For Saturday, Tate’s favoured method of victory is by decision at +175, followed by submission at +900 and KO/TKO/DQ at +1600. A draw is +5000.

Julia Avila UFC Fight Night Austin Odds

Avila, 35, is from the Los Angeles area and is 9-2 despite starting her pro career in 2012 as she has had a few breaks from the Octagon. This will be her first time in it since June 2021 after motherhood (had her first child, a daughter, in October 2022) and a knee injury kept her out of action for more than two

years. Thus, she’s down at No. 13 in the bantamweight rankings when in reality she should be much higher. Avila’s lone title came in her third career fight overall and in the HD MMA organization. She also spent some tin in Invicta FC before joining the UFC in 2019.

We last saw “Raging Panda” – definitely one of the better nicknames not just in MMA but all of sports – in June 2021 when she beat Julia Stoliarenko by third-round submission (rear-naked choke). Avila’s scheduled fight with Raquel Pennington in December 2021 was cancelled after Avila suffered a knee injury that required surgery.

“I’ve experienced a lot, and I think I have to be prepared for anything against Julia Avila because she hasn’t fought in so long,” Tate said of her opponent. “I know when I came back after a five-year layoff I felt like a completely different fighter. I really fell in love with my striking and I was doing much better than I had in my entire career with my hands. It’s been awhile since she’s fought. She had a baby. She might come into this fight with an entirely different stance. She may come out a southpaw. I don’t know. It’s been awhile.”

The 5-foot-7 Avila has a reach of 68 inches and her fights average 11:10. She lands 3.18 significant strikes per minute with 44 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.86 with 55 per cent defence. Her takedown average is 0.67 per 15 minutes with 33 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 61 per cent.

Avila has four wins by KO/TKO, three by decision and two by submission. Her favoured method of victory Saturday is by decision at +150, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +450 and submission at +700. In the “How Fight Will End Prop,” decision is -225, KO/TKO/DQ at +350 and submission at +400. That can be a great alternative wager in a close fight like this. That the fight goes the distance is -225 with no at +165.