UFC Fight Night Austin Odds, Prediction: Clay Guida vs. Joaquim Silva

Edgar Chaput
November 30, 2023

It’s less the age gap that one notices. The American Guida is 41 to Silva’s 34, which isn’t too great a difference. It’s more than Guida is a 20-year veteran in the octagon, with an incredible 58 fights to his name and a 38-20 record. In contrast, this is Silva 18^th fight and he has a 12-5 tally.

The MMA odds currently have Clay Guida at +265 and Joaquim Silva at -344.

Clay Guida UFC Fight Night Austin Odds

Nicknamed “The Carpenter”, the Illinois-born and established fighter is in the twilight of his career. Consider that this will only be his second fight in all of 2023 and the last one was almost eight months ago at UFC on ESPN 44. Surely after all these years, one can forgive that he needs a bit more time to recoup after such intense battles. Sadly, that lone bout ended in defeat against Rafa Garcia via unanimous decision.

We have to go back to December a year ago for the last time the American won a fight. It was at UFC on ESPN 42 versus Scott Holtzman where a split decision went his way.

As far as height, weight, and reach, these two gladiators are quite evenly matched. Guida is five feet seven to Silva’s five feet eight. He weighs 154.5 pounds to the Brazilian’s 155.5. There is a slight reach disadvantage at 38 inches to 39. One thing is clear, Guida doesn’t need knockouts to win, be they of the old school or technical variety. Only 18 per cent of his bouts are won that way. A considerable 45 per cent come via decisions and 37 by submission.

He doesn’t land too many major hits per minute, only 2.63. Unfortunately, he takes a few more licks, eating 3.01 every 60 seconds. His defence against them is better though at 61 per cent to Silva’s 52. If Guida wins, it most likely will be courtesy of his grappling abilities. He averages 3.16 takedowns every 15 minutes

Joaquim Silva UFC Fight Night Austin Odds

Hailing from Anapolis in Brazil, the 34-year-old also happens to be seeking his first win of 2023. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Muay Thai practitioner has only fought once so far. That was in June at UFC on ESPN 47 against Arman Tsarukyan, who defeated him via TKO in the third round.

October 2022 was the last time Silva savoured the sweet taste of victory. The event was UFC Fight Night 211 against Jesse Ronson. The latter was a replacement fighter but proved to be no match for the Brazilian, who bested him with a flying knee and some good old-fashioned ground and pound. His efforts were deemed worthy of the Performance of the Night honour.

In stark contrast to this Saturday’s opponent, Silva greatly depends on KO and TKO as a road to victory. He wins 58 per cent of his fights that way, with only 25 per cent by putting rivals into submission and 17 per cent of wins are awarded by the judges. Given that, it’s not surprising to learn that he operates more quickly, with fights taking 9:33 on average versus 12:21 for Guida.

Where things get interesting is the significant hit department. He’s more successful at landing them than the American (3.71) but he takes far more (4.79). Even though Guida likes to overtake his opponents with some grappling, don’t overlook Silva’s decent 58 per cent defence against that technique.