UFC Fight Night 238 Odds, Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev

Gaziev impressed in his promotional debut at UFC 296, recording a second-round TKO victory over Martin Buday, and has now finished opponents in 11 of his 12 career victories. Rozenstruik has been idle since last May, when he suffered a first-round submission loss to Jailton Almeida in the main event at UFC Charlotte, which marked his fifth loss in eight fights since opening his pro career with 10 straight wins.

Gaziev is priced as a -165 favourite to win on the UFC Fight Night 238 odds, well ahead of Rozenstruik at +135, with the odds of this fight going the distance pegged at a lengthy +750.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik UFC Fight Night 238 Odds

Things have not gone well for “Bigi Boy” since he took the UFC heavyweight division by storm with decisive knockout victories in his first four octagon appearances. Rozenstruik has failed to maintain that torrid pace while facing stiffing competition, with three of his five defeats coming inside five minutes including opening-round knockout losses to former champion Francis Ngannou and Alexander Volkov.

However, with 12 of his 13 career wins coming by KO or TKO, Rozenstruik’s striking power cannot be underestimated. That includes each of his past two wins, which came inside five minutes and earned him Performance of the Night bonuses, including a victory over Chris Daukaus just 23 seconds into their clash at UFC 282, back in December 2022. And while Bigi Boy has never gone a full five rounds, he does enjoy more experience in championship rounds including a five-round unanimous decision loss to former interim UFC heavyweight champion Cyril Gane at UFC Vegas 20, and a KO victory over Alastair Overeem with just four seconds remaining int their UFC Washington tilt five years ago.

Shamil Gaziev UFC Fight Night 238 Odds

Gaziev earned his first appearance as a UFC headliner with an impressive debut win back in December over Martin Buday that also earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. The 34-year-old Russian may be a newcomer to the UFC, but has arrived in Vegas already enjoying a reputation as both a fearsome power puncher, who can also dominate when the action moves to the mat.

Of his 12 career victories to date, eight have come by knockout, including five inside five minutes. However, Gaziev has also forced opponents to tap out on three occasions, with each of those submission victories coming by rear naked choke in the first round including a win over Greg Valesco on Dana White’s Contender Series that earned him his UFC contract.

UFC Fight Night 238 Prediction: Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev

There is no question that Gaziev is a rising star in the UFC heavyweight division, and is a formidable opponent, both standing and on the mat. However. Given his total dominance of the opponents he has faced to date, it is tough to gauge just how well he can defend and absorb strikes against an experienced UFC veteran like Rozenstruick. Indeed, Gaziev has absorbed just eight total strikes in his two mismatches in the octagon, and must avoid overconfidence against Rozenstruick, who has proven his ability to quickly finish opponents. The +400 odds of this fight ending inside five minutes are intriguing. But with both these fighters having plenty of reason to show respect, expect this fighter to be a marathon banger, which will favour Rozenstruick the longer it goes.

Accordingly, look for Bigi Boy to give Gaziev a rude welcome to the big leagues.

Prediction: Rozenstruick by KO/TKO or DQ (+175)