UFC Fight Night 173 Odds: Clay Guida vs. Bobby Green Prediction

Payton Matthews | Updated Jun 17, 2020

clay guida ufc

Few MMA fighters have been in the Octagon more than the 38-year-old Clay Guida (35-19). His fight is the final bout of Saturday's prelims.

The final bout of the preliminary card for UFC Fight Night 173/Vegas 3 on Saturday night features American lightweights Clay Guida and Bobby Green facing off. Green is a -230 favourite on the MMA odds with Guida at +170. The bout should start around 7:30 p.m. ET.

Guida vs. Green UFC Vegas 3 Odds

Technically there are two UFC lightweight champions: Unbeaten Khabib Nurmagomedov, but he hasn’t fought in nearly a year for various reasons, and interim champion Justin Gaethje. Neither Guida nor Green is ranked in the division. They were originally to fight UFC 225 in June 2018, but Green pulled out injured.

Few MMA fighters have been in the Octagon more than the 38-year-old Guida (35-19). His professional career started way back in July 2003. Guida has fought in just about every major organization possible and was the inaugural Strikeforce lightweight champion, winning that belt against Josh Thompson in March 2006 but then losing it next time out vs. Gilbert Melendez.

“The Carpenter” made his UFC debut in October 2006 with a submission victory over Justin James and has battled the likes of Rafael dos Anjos, Anthony Pettis, Benson Henderson, Gray Maynard and BJ Penn. His war against Diego Sanchez in “the Ultimate Fighter 9” finale is in the UFC Hall of Fame. Guida last fought in August 2019 and lost to Jim Miller via technical submission on a guillotine choke less than a minute in.

Guida wins 40 per cent of the time by decision, 37 by submission and 20 by KO/TKO. He loses a majority of time (53 per cent) by submission. His UFC fights average 12:26 and he lands 2.45 significant strikes per minute (absorbs 2.40) and 3.39 takedowns per 15 minutes with 38 per cent accuracy. Guida’s takedown defence is 69 per cent.

Green (24-10), 33, also had been in Strikeforce among other organizations. “King” made his UFC debut in February 2013 with a rear-naked choke submission of Jacob Volkmann. Green won his first four UFC doubts but has just one victory in seven since: Over Erik Koch in January 2018 by unanimous decision. Green is off a unanimous decision loss to Francisco Trinaldo in November (Green had briefly retired before taking that bout).

Fight Night 173 - Clay Guida v Bobby Green

  • Bobby Green -230
  • Clay Guida +180

When Green losses, it’s usually by decision (60 per cent). He has won nine fights by submission, eight by KO/TKO and seven by decision. His fights also last on average 12:26 and he lands 4.95 significant strikes per minute (absorbs 3.70) and 1.12 takedowns on average per 15 minutes with 29 per cent accuracy. Green’s takedown defence is 74 per cent.

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Guida vs. Green

Green is three inches taller than Guida but with just an inch of reach advantage. Both fight out of an orthodox stance. Back the younger Green to win by submission.