UFC Fight Night 172 Odds, Prediction: Matt Brown vs. Miguel Baeza

Payton Matthews | Fri. May 15 2020, 06:05 am

matt brown ufc

UFC veteran Mike Brown knows how to finish a fight, with 14 of his 22 victories in the UFC coming by way of knockout or technical knock out.

The final fight of the prelims on the UFC Fight Night 172 card from Jacksonville, Fla., on Saturday features a welterweight matchup between devastating finisher Matt Brown and unbeaten Miguel Baeza. This bout likely will take place around 7:30 p.m. ET. Check out a detailed look at How to Bet UFC.

Neither Brown nor Baeza is ranked in the division – although Baeza probably will be if he wins Saturday. He’s a -210 favourite on the UFC odds board with Brown at +160. Baeza (8-0) is one of two unbeaten fighters on the entire UFC Fight Night 172 card along with Brazil’s Rodrigo Nascimento (7-0), who fights earlier in the prelims against Don’Tale Mayes. Nascimento is a slight -105 underdog there.

The 27-year-old Baeza, who is from Florida, made his professional MMA debut in 2015 with a first-round TKO win (punches) over John McDonald and then his UFC debut last time out in October 2019 with a second-round TKO win (leg kick and elbows) over Hector Aldana.

“Carmel Thunder” had earned a UFC contract thanks to a one-sided unanimous decision win over Victor Reyna in June 2019 in Dana White’s “Contender Series.” Six of Baeza’s wins are by KO/TKO and two by decision. His fights on average last 1.5 rounds. Baeza lands 4.26 significant strikes per minute and just 0.67 takedowns per 15 minutes.

Brown vs. Baeza UFC Fight Night 172 Odds

Brown (22-16), 39, is from Ohio and is among all the all-time leaders in the UFC welterweight division in knockout wins and finishes. His MMA debut was way back in 2005 and Brown’s first UFC fight was a second-round TKO victory (punches) over Matt Arroyo in “the Ultimate Fighter 7” finale.

No question that Brown has fought some big names in the UFC but basically lost to them all: Donald Cerrone, Jake Ellenberger, Demian Maia, Johny Hendricks and Robbie Lawler. “The Immortal” has followed a three-fight losing streak with two straight wins. In December, he took out Ben Saunders by second-round knockout (elbows and punches).

That was Brown’s first fight in two years due to injury (he considered retiring for a bit): One of the most memorable UFC knockouts of 2017 was Brown’s first-round win (via vicious elbow) vs. Diego Sanchez in November of that year. Sherdog has twice named Brown a member of its All-Violence first team.

Fourteen of Brown’s 22 wins are by KO/TKO, while 10 of his 16 losses are by submission. His victories average 1.3 rounds and losses 2.0. Brown lands 3.75 significant strikes per minute on average and 1.64 takedowns per 15.

UFC Fight Night 172 Predictions: Brown vs. Baeza

UFC odds have the over/under for rounds is -135. It will go over that but not the distance. Brown wins by KO/TKO in a mild upset.