UFC Fight Island: Peter Sobotta vs. Alex Oliveira Prediction

Jeremy Perry | Updated Jul 21, 2020

Peter Sobotta UFC

Peter Sobotta rolls into Saturday’s affair with Alex Oliveira as the favourite at Sports Interaction.

The UFC is back with another card on Fight Island this Saturday. One of the more intriguing bouts on the main card will be the Welterweight showdown between Alex Oliveira and Peter Sobotta. Both are unranked in the division and both have struggled a little bit coming into this bout, so both will need a good showing here to get back on track. The oddsmakers say that Sobotta is more likely to earn the win but is he the right bet?

Fight Island July 25: Peter Sobotta v Alex Oliveira

  • Alex Oliveira -125
  • Peter Sobotta -105

Peter Sobotta UFC Fight Island Odds

Sobotta rolls into Saturday’s affair off a loss to Leon Edwards but it’s important to note that the loss came in March of 2018. That means Sobotta has been off for more than two years, so there are going to be concerns about ring rust. He was supposed to get back to business versus Alessio Di Chirico in September of 2019 but that was canceled due to injury. Overall, he’s 17-6-1 in his MMA career, which is pretty good, and he hasn’t exactly racked up the quality wins. He lost to Edwards in a third-round knockout – getting knocked out right at the buzzer – but his wins before that were against Ben Saunders, Nicolas Dalby and Steve Kennedy. These aren’t exactly household names.

Sobotta is a fighter who excels on the ground, so you can expect him to try and take the fight there. In his career, he has compiled 17 wins and 10 of them are via submission compared to five via knockout. If he can take down Oliveira and avoid fighting the fight standing, he should have a good shot.

Alex Oliveira UFC Fight Island Odds

Oliveira has clearly had a rough time of late. While he’s coming off a win – a split decision win over Max Griffin in March – he has still lost three of his last four. One of those losses was to Dalby – a common opponent with Sobotta – so that is also one reason why is Sobotta is favored.

Oliveira is the more versatile of the two fighters here as he’s a decent striker as well as being decent on the ground. 12 of his 20 wins were by knockout but his other eight are by decision and submission, so he can find success anyway this goes. He’s picked up submissions in two of his last five fights, so he knows how to end get his opponents to tap. He’s a hard-nosed fighter with a kickboxing background, so he probably would like to keep this standing, but he also has a blue belt in Muay Thai. He can have success on the ground too

Sobotta might be the better of the two fighters overall but there has to be concern that he’s been off for so long. Don’t be surprised if Oliveira is a live dog here and finds his way to a win.

Peter Sobotta vs. Alex Oliveira Prediction:

Oliveira via decision.