UFC 319 Odds, Prediction: Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico

Aaron Pico has been idle since wrapping up a seven-year stint at Bellator in February 2024 with a decisive TKO win over Henry Corrales that marks his second straight victory inside five minutes and third straight win overall. Lerone Murphy has climbed to No. 6 on the UFC featherweight rankings after recording a five-round unanimous decision victory in his most recent outing at UFC Vegas 105 that extended his current win streak to eight fights and improved his overall pro MMA record to 16-0-1.

Pico is pegged as a -190 favourite on the UFC 319 odds, while Murphy lags as a +155 underdog. The odds of this fight going a full three rounds are a short -185.

Lerone Murphy UFC 319 Odds

Lerone Murphy has made steady gains on the UFC rankings during his current 8-0 run, and has also seen his fight game quickly evolve over that stretch. The 34-year-old Englishman developed a reputation as a fearsome striker early in his career, with seven of his first 11 career victories coming by KO or TKO. However, as Murphy’s competition has stiffened, so has his fight strategy.

While “The Miracle” has continued to out-strike opponents with regularity, he has struggled at times with level changes. Murphy has recorded multiple takedowns in three of his past four fights, but has failed to capitalize on those opportunities and has endured more significant bottom time in two of his past three fights.

Aaron Pico UFC 319 Odds

There has been plenty of hype ahead of Aaron Pico’s promotional debut, which has twice been delayed since he signed with the UFC this past spring. The 28-year-old American gets set to make his octagon debut sporting impressive credentials. In addition to claiming both the U17 and U20 US national championships, Pico has also competed as a boxer and in Pankration, and enjoyed a specular pro MMA debut with Bellator, with his first four wins coming by first-round knockout.

There were also learning moments early on, with Pico also suffering a pair of stunning defeats inside five minutes. However, has game has evolved during his current 9-1 run. Pico has made more effective use of his wrestling mastery to establish control over opponents and must now be considered one of the most well-rounded, multi-tool fighters in the UFC featherweight division.

UFC 319 Prediction: Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico

While both these fighters possess the ability to finish things with a single punch, Pico enjoys a clear edge over Murphy when levels change. Certainly, Pico’s 18-month layoff raises concerns about rust. But if he can avoid any rookie mistakes, he should be able to wear done Murphy in a clash that goes a full three rounds.

Prediction: Pico by decision/technical decision (+125).