UFC 317 Odds, Prediction: Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira
Ilia Topuria is a massive -525 favourite on the MMA odds with Charles Oliveira a +380 underdog for the scheduled five-round fight.
Ilia Topuria UFC 317 Odds
The biggest accomplishment in the UFC is to become a two-division champion. Islam Makhachev is the organization’s pound-for-pound king and lightweight champion, but he will officially vacate that belt once this fight starts. Makhachev has decided to move welterweight and face champion Jack Della Maddalena for that belt most likely this fall.
The 28-year-old Topuria (16-0), of Georgian and Spanish descent, is the current featherweight champion but he will vacate that to move up to lightweight. “El Matador” became the first Georgian champion in UFC history with his UFC 298 title win over Alexander Volkanovski via second-round KO (punch). Topuria followed that last October with a third-round KO (punches) of Max Holloway in his only title defence.
Those two opponents are legends and to knock them both out is truly impressive. That’s why Topuria is ranked No. 3 on the UFC’s pound-for-pound list behind Makhachev and bantamweight king Merab Dvalishvili. Topuria is one of 14 fighters to win an undisputed UFC title with an undefeated record but none of the previous 13 won titles in two weight classes with an undefeated mark.
Almost everyone thinks that Makhachev and Topuria will face off eventually if they keep winning. Topuria initially accused the Russian of ducking him but has since backtracked.
“I don’t think he [Makhachev] is ducking me, to be honest,” Topuria said. “I would be lying to you if I told you that he’s ducking me. I think he’s tired of the weight cut [at lightweight division]. He wants a new challenge. He moved to the welterweight division. He feels and he thinks that he has a chance to become a double champion. I think that this is all he’s trying to do.”
The 5-foot-7 Topuria has a reach of 69 inches and his bouts average 10:14. He lands 4.69 significant strikes per minute with 47 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.84 with 64 per cent defence. His takedown average is 2.02 with 61 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 92 per cent. Topuria has eight wins by submission, six by KO/TKO and two by the judges. His favoured method Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at -185. To win in Round 1, he’s only +200. That the fight is a draw is +5000.
Charles Oliveira UFC 317 Odds
The Brazilian Oliveira, 35, is 35-10 career with one no-contest, ranked No. 2 in the lightweight division and 13th on the pound-for-pound list. He’s a former Ring of Combat lightweight champion who captured that belt in the UFC by beating Michael Chandler Jr. via second-round TKO (punches) at UFC 262.
“Do Bronxs” successfully defended against the excellent Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje before losing to current champion Islam Makhachev via second-round submission (arm-triangle choke) at UFC 280. Oliveira is 2-1 since and beat Chandler again last November by unanimous decision to stay in the lightweight title picture. Oliveira can become the first two-time undisputed UFC lightweight champion.
He also will become the seventh fighter in UFC history to make 35 or more Octagon appearances. Oliveira’s 23 UFC victories are tied for second-most in organization history and his 16 lightweight wins are tied for third-most in divisional history. His 20 stoppage victories overall are most in company history and his 16 submission victories are also most.
Oliveira expects to finish Topuria: “Every fighter has different levels of things, different approaches to things. Ilia’s just coming out there very young, very hungry. He’s also undefeated. But there’s a lot to prove still. In reality, everyone knows what’s going to happen. He’s another dude that’s talking that’s going to fold in front of me.”
The 5-foot-10 Oliveira has a reach of 74 inches and his fights average just 7:38. He lands 3.40 significant strikes per minute with 55 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.21 with 49 per cent defence. His takedown average is 2.25 per 15 minutes with 40 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 56 per cent. Oliveira’s favoured method of victory Saturday is by submission at +750. That he wins in Round 1 by any method is +1200. That the bout goes the full five is +400 with no at -700 – that’s a crazy number.
