UFC 314 Odds, Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes

Alexander Volkanovski is a -125 favourite on the MMA odds and Diego Lopes is +105 for the scheduled five-round bout.

Alexander Volkanovski UFC 314 Odds

Ilia Topuria is the current UFC featherweight champion but in name only as he will officially vacate the title to Saturday’s winner as Topuria is moving up to the lightweight division in pursuit of a world championship in a second weight class. Topuria also had some issues cutting weight at featherweight.

The 36-year-old Volkanovski, from Australia, is ranked No. 1 in the division with a 26-4 career mark. “The Great” also has fought at lightweight and welterweight and is a former Australian Fighting Championship featherweight champion who also dabbled in boxing. Volkanovski won the UFC featherweight title for the first time at UFC 245 over Max Holloway and successfully defended it a handful of times.

However, in the midst of that Volkanovski also fought Islam Makhachev twice for the lightweight title and lost both. The Aussie then lost the featherweight belt to Topuria back in February by second-round KO (punch). All the judges had Volkanovski winning the first round, but then Topuria finished him with a lethal combination at 3 minutes, 32 seconds of Round 2. Leading into the fight, Topuria was saying he would knock Volkanovski out in the second round, and his title defence streak was halted at five.

There was some talk of a rematch earlier this year but that point was moot when Topuria announced he was moving up in weight. Volkanovski’s six victories in UFC featherweight championship bouts are second-most in divisional history behind Jose Aldo’s eight. Many consider them the two best featherweights in history. Volkanovski can become the first fighter in organization history to win an undisputed championship after back-to-back losses.

The 5-foot-6 Volkanovski, still the only Australian champion in UFC history, has a reach of 71 inches and his fights average 15:49. In just UFC featherweight bouts, Volkanovski’s average fight time of 16:54 is the longest in divisional history. He lands 6.16 significant strikes per minute with 56 per cent accuracy, and he absorbs 3.44 with 58 per cent defence. He averages 1.78 takedowns per 15 minutes with 37 per cent defence, while his takedown defence is 70 per cent.

Volkanovski has three losses by KO/TKO and one by decision, while 13 of his wins are by KO/TKO, 10 via the judges and three by submission. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +200, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +300 and submission +1600. A draw is +5000. To win in Round 1, Volkanovski is +900. He has never won a UFC fight in the first round but has lost one.

Diego Lopes UFC 314 Odds

The 30-year-old Lopes, from Brazil, is ranked No. 3 in the featherweight division with a career mark of 20-6 dating to 2012. He is a former featherweight champion of the Mexican MMA promotion Lux Fight League as he now resides in Mexico.

Lopes lost his UFC debut in May 2023 on short notice by unanimous decision to Movsar Evloev at UFC 288 – there is talk of a rematch if Lopes wins here — but has since won five in a row after taking out Brian Ortega last September by unanimous decision at UFC 306. The pair originally been set for UFC 303 in June 2024, only for Ortega to be forced out of the bout at the 11th hour and replaced by Dan Ige just hours before the fight transpired. Lopes also took care of Inge by unanimous decision.

At 5-foot-11, Lopes will have a five-inch height advantage over Volkanovski and will have a one-inch reach advantage at 72 inches. His fights overall average 8:33, but in just the UFC his bouts average 6:55, which is the shortest active fighters in the featherweight division. Lopes lands 4.20 significant strikes per minute with 53 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.11 with 50 per cent defence. He averages just 0.50 takedowns per 15 minutes with 40 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 52 per cent.

The Brazilian has four losses by decision and two by KO/TKO, with 12 wins by submission, 10 by KO/TKO and four by decision. Thus, Lopes has earned 21 of his 25 career victories by stoppage – including three of five UFC wins. His favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +300, followed by decision at +450 and submission at +500.

To win in Round 1, he’s +700. Lopes has won in the first round as recently as April 2024 against Sodiq Yusuff. That either fighter wins by KO/TKO is the overall +100 leader. That it goes the full five rounds is +110 with no at -150. With Lopes’ track record, going the full five seems unlikely.