UFC 311 Odds, Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov

This marks the first title defence for Merab Dvalishvili, who claimed the UFC bantamweight crown and extended his current win streak to 11 fights with a fifth-round unanimous win over Sean O’Malley at UFC 306. Umar Nurmagomedov makes his first ever bid for the UFC bantamweight strap sporting a perfect 18-0 pro MMA record after earning a five-round unanimous decision over Cory Sandhagen last summer at UFC Abu Dhabi and has now seen three of his first four UFC fights at 135 pounds get decided by the judges.

Undefeated Nurmagomedov has emerged as a -250 favourite on the UFC 311 odds. Dvashvili is pegged as a +200 underdog to defend his title and the odds of this fight going a full five rounds are pegged at -275..

Merab Dvalishvili UFC 311 Odds

Being pegged as a UFC betting underdog is nothing new for Merab Dvalishvili. Indeed, “The Machine” has surpassed expectations at the sportsbook while claiming outright victory as a betting dog in two of his past three fights. The oft underrated Georgian has shown enormous durability during his epic 11-0 run, with 10 of those contests going the distance including five-round marathon matchups against O’Malley and Petr Yan. Currently pegged at No. 7 on the UFC Pound-for-Pound rankings, Dvalishvili has built his recent dominance on effective level changes, executive 22 total takedowns for his past three fights and piling up over 21 minutes of combined control time in those outings. The 34-year-old is equally comfortable fighting on his feet and has out-struck his opponents by wide margins in each of past 12 octagon appearances.

Umar Nurmagomedov UFC 311 Odds

Nurmagomedov is coming off the toughest test of his UFC career last time out, earning a clear victory by decision in his five-round date with Corey Sandhagen. However, the learning curve is about to get much steeper for the undefeated 29-year-old Russian. Prior to his date with Sandhagen, Nurmagomedov made his mark beating up on such overmatched opponents as Raoni Barcelos, Brian Kelleher, and Braian Gonzalez, all of whom disposed of inside five minutes. Indeed, prior to his clash with Sandhagen, Nurmagomedov was on the receiving end of just 26 total significant strikes in his previous five fights and executed five takedowns in each of three of those contests. An established submission specialist, with seven of his career wins coming by tap out, Nurmagomedov usually thrives when the action goes to the mat, but will have his hands full against an experienced grappler like Dvalishvili.

UFC 311 Prediction: Merab Dvalishvili vs Umar Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov has quickly made a name for himself in his stunning UFC debut and is a legit challenger for the UFC bantamweight crown. The question is whether he is ready for such a huge leap in competition that this battle with Dvalishvili. Expect a fight that eventually goes to the mat, with no quick finishes. However, it is tough to ignore the value in the positive odds sported by the older and more experience champion.

Prediction: Dvalishvili by decision/technical decision (+350)