UFC 311 Odds, Prediction: Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano
Islam Makhachev successfully defended the UFC lightweight strap for a third time with his fifth-round submission victory over Dustin Poirier at UFC 302 and has now finished opponents in seven of his past eight fights. Originally schedule to face Beneil Dariush on Saturday night, Renato Moicano gets an unexpected title shot after Arman Tsarukyan forced to pull out of his long awaited rematch with Makhachev on Friday due to injury. The 10th-ranked contender in the UFC lightweight division, Moicano has won four straight and has finished opponents five times during a 6-1, capped by a TKO win over Benoit Saint Denis last fall at UFC Paris.
Makhachev enters the octagon at Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California perched as a massive -1200 favourite on the UFC 311 odds. Moicano is listed as a distant +725 underdog, with the odds of this fight going a full five rounds pegged at a lengthy +450.
Islam Makhachev UFC 311 Odds
Makhachev leads the UFC Pound-for-Pound rankings for good reason. The 33-year-old Russian trails only Jon Jones among active fighters with 14 straight wins and has picked up either a Performance of the Night bonus or Fight of the Night bonus, or both, in each of his past four fights. With 12 of his 26 wins coming by submission, Makhachev is a constant threat to tap out opponents, with the notable list of fighters who have been submitted by the champion including Poirier, Charles Oliveira, and Dan Hooker, and has executed 11 total takedowns over his past four fights. While Makhachev was fortunate to escape with a fifth-round win in his rematch with Alexander Volkovski at UFC 284, he demonstrated far greater staying power in his fifth-round win over Poirier last time out.
Renato Moicano UFC 311 Odds
Saturday night will be somewhat of a “Rocky” moment for Renato Moicano, who now gets a shot at the title against arguably the best fighter in the world after tallying four straight wins against subpar fighters on losing streaks. The qualify of his recent competition should not really take anything away from Moicano, who dominated his overmatched opponents during his current win streak, highlighted by a submission win over Brad Riddell 3:20 into their date at UFC 281. Like Makhachev, Moicano is a submission specialist, with 10 of his 20 career wins coming by tap out. However, the 33-year-old Brazilian also has demonstrated surprising striking ability while tallying second-round TKOs in his each of his past two fights while out-striking his opponents by a 2/1 margin.
UFC 311 Prediction: Islam Makhachev vs Renato Moicano
A mismatch on paper, this battle between submission specialists will mostly be fought on the mat. Moicano must find a way to score an early finish if he is to have any hop of pulling off the upset. More likely, we will see Makhachev steadily wear down Moicano, who suffered a unanimous decision loss to Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 272 in the only career fight he has seen go beyond three rounds.
Prediction: Makhachev in Round 5 (+1600)