UFC 310 Odds, Prediction: Dominick Reyes vs. Anthony Smith

Dominick Reyes is a -350 favourite on the MMA odds and Anthony Smith is at +260 for the scheduled three-rounder.

Dominick Reyes UFC 310 odds

Alex Pereira is the current UFC light heavyweight champion, and the 34-year-old Reyes, from California, is ranked 12th in the division with a career 13-4 MMA record. Seventeen fights really aren’t that many for a guy at his age and who professionally debuted in 2014. He also played college football for Stony Brook in the lower-tier FCS level and had a very good career but wasn’t drafted by the NFL and eventually found his way to MMA

“The Devastator” started his career 12-0 but then lost four straight: To Jon Jones (for the UFC light heavyweight title, and many thought Reyes had beaten the all-time great Jones), Jan Blachowicz (vacant light heavyweight title), Jiri Prochazka and Byran Spann.

That latter bout was in November 2022 and Reyes didn’t return to the Octagon until this past June (due to a potential career-ending injury) with a first-round KO (punches) victory over Justin Jacoby. Reyes finished it with a left to Jacoby’s temple, which dropped Jacoby and forced the referee to stop the fight. It was Reyes’ victory since 2019, when he beat Chris Weidman, which landed him the title fight against Jones in February 2020.

The 6-foot-4 Reyes, a southpaw, has a reach of 77 inches and his bouts average 7:50. He lands 4.87 strikes per minute with 50 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.75 with 48 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.35 per 15 minutes with 28 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 80 per cent.

Reyes has three losses by KO/TKO and one by decision with eight wins by KO/TKO, three by the judges and two by submission. Perhaps his most notable win was a knockout of Joachim Christensen just 29 seconds in at UFC Fight Night 112. It marked the second-fastest stoppage by any debuting light heavyweight in UFC history behind Ryan Jimmo’s seven-second win at UFC 149.

For Saturday, Reyes’ favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at -150, followed by decision at +400 and submission at +1800. A draw is +5000. Reyes to win in Round 1 like his last bout is +200.

Anthony Smith UFC 310 odds

The 36-year-old Smith, from Nebraska, is ranked 13th in the light heavyweight division with a 38-20 career mark as his pro career began way back in 2008. Smith has gotten one title shot in his UFC career and that was against Jon Jones in 2019, and Jones won by unanimous decision.

Since then, Smith is 6-6 and has alternated losses and wins over his past five. “Lionheart” was beaten by Romon Dolidze by unanimous decision at UFC 303 in June – Dolidze was a late replacement for Carlos Ulberg. Smith did begin this year with an upset win at UFC 301 in May, handing Vitor Petrino his first career loss with a first-round guillotine submission.

The 6-foot-4 Smith has a reach of 76 inches and his bouts average 9:51. He lands 3.24 significant strikes per minute with 49 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.60 with 46 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.46 with 26 per cent defence, and his takedown defence is 50 per cent.

Smith has 11 losses by KO/TKO, five by decision and four by submission. He has 20 wins by KO/TKO, 15 by submission and three by decision. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is via the judges at +550, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +600 and submission at +1000. To win in Round 1, he’s +1000. Smith’s five submission victories in UFC light heavyweight competition are tied for third-most in divisional history behind Glover Teixeira (seven) and Paul Craig (six).

That the fight goes the full three rounds is +240 with no at -300. The favoured overall method of victory is either by KO/TKO/DQ at -250. I rather like simply that it goes the distance at only three rounds.