UFC 309 Odds, Prediction: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
Michael Chandler has been idle since suffering a third-round submission loss to Dustin Poirier at UFC 281 that marked his third loss in four fights. Charles Oliveira looks to get back into the win column after suffering a narrow split-decision loss to Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300 and has now lost two of three fights since being stripped of the UFC middleweight strap over two years ago.
Despite his recent struggles, Oliveira leads the way as a clear -275 favourite on the UFC 309 odds. Chandler trails as a +210 underdog and the odds of this fights going a full five rounds are pegged at +550.
Charles Oliveira UFC 309 Odds
Charles Oliveira arguably deserved a better fate while suffering a split-decision loss in his recent UFC lightweight title eliminator against Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300. Oliveira led early on and came tantalizingly close to ending things with an early standing guillotine and a third-round D’Arce choke attempt. However, the former champ was also widely out-struck and taken to the mat on two occasions, which ultimately tilted the fight in his favour.
That fight mirrored Oliveira’s loss at UFC 280 to Islam Makhachev, who became the first fighter to finish “Do Bronx” in five years with his second-round submission win. The question now is, which version of Oliveira will show up? The former champ who finished opponents 10 times during an epic 11-fight win streak or the aging fighter who has failed to slam the door in two of his past three contests?
Michael Chandler UFC 309 Odds
Considered to be among the best lightweight fighters in the game when he made his UFC debut in 2021, things have not gone as planned for Michael Chandler. The former Bellator lightweight champ has lost in three of four trips to the octagon so celebrating his promotional debut with a first-round TKO win over Dan Hooker including a second-round TKO loss to Oliveira in his bid for the vacant UFC lightweight title at UFC 262.
While Chandler has made up for his recent struggles by claiming performance bonuses in four of his five career octagon appearances, he has shown a tendency to quickly wear down and has been out-struck by a wide margin after first-round action in all but one of his fights to date.
UFC 309 Prediction: Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler
If Michael Chandler is to earn the win on Saturday, he will likely have to get to Oliveira early and often. Indeed, the longer this fight goes, the more it will swing in favour of Oliveira, who has not lost a step in his grappling game. While Chandler enjoys more experience than Oliveira fighting in championship rounds, this fight is unlike to get that far as Oliveira duplicates the dominance performance that earned him the UFC lightweight title with his win over Chandler in May 2021.
Prediction: Oliveira by submission in third round (+1400)