Alexa Grasso is a -140 favourite on the MMA odds with Valentina Shevchenko at +115.

Alexa Grasso UFC 306 Odds

Technically, Saturday’s entire card is called UFC 306 Riyadh Season Noche. It’s the organization’s second “Noche UFC” edition celebrating Mexican Independence Day, which is Monday. This is also the first time the UFC has allowed a sponsor title partner status, which in this case is Saudi Arabia’s General Entertainment Authority. It’s no secret the Saudis are trying hard to force their way into all major American sports with their billions of dollars to spend.

The 31-year-old Grasso, from Mexico, is 16-3-1 in her professional MMA career and not just the UFC women’s flyweight champion but also the organization’s pound-for-pound queen. Grasso enters on a six-fight unbeaten streak since her last loss to Carla Esparza in September 2019. That streak is tied for the second-longest in the women’s flyweight division behind Manon Fiorot (seven), who is ranked No. 2 in the division and could be up next.

Grasso first won the flyweight belt by beating Shevchenko by fourth-round face crank submission in March 2023 in a massive upset. I personally have no idea what a face crank is, but it sounds painful.

The two had a rematch last September in the first “Noche UFC” edition and it was ruled a split draw with scores of 48-47, 47-48 and 47-47, meaning Grasso retained the belt. She dropped Shevchenko in the second round, but Shevchenko nearly finished champion in the third round with a mounted guillotine choke. It ended with Grasso on Shevchenko’s back landing punches. Grasso said she thought she won the fight three rounds to two. Judge Mike Bell had Grasso winning the fifth round 10-8, which led to the draw. It marked the sixth championship fight in modern UFC history to end in a draw.

The 5-foot-5 Grasso, the only female Mexican champion in UFC history, has a reach of 66 inches and her fights average 15:06. She lands 4.67 significant strikes per minute with 43 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.95 with 58 per cent defence. Grasso’s takedown average is 0.41 per 15 minutes with 45 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 59 per cent.

She has two losses by the judges and one by submission, while 10 of her wins are by decision, four by KO/TKO and two by submission. Grasso’s favoured method of victory Saturday is by decision at +200, followed by submission at +350 and KO/TKO/DQ at +700. To win in Round 1, she’s +900. A draw is +5000.

Valentina Shevchenko UFC 306 Odds

The 36-year-old Shevchenko, the oldest of 20 fighters overall on Saturday’s card, is from Kyrgyzstan but also maintains residence in Las Vegas. She’s a former flyweight champion with a career mark of 23-4-1 and ranked No. 1 in the division and No. 3 on the women’s pound-for-pound list.

“Bullet” had won nine fights in a row before the loss and then draw vs. Grasso. Shevchenko said after that draw she thought the heavily pro-Mexican crowd at T-Mobile Arena last year ahead of Mexican Independence Day played role in swaying the judges – they “felt pressure,” she said — and told the UFC she preferred not to fight another Noche UFC event. Clearly, the UFC didn’t listen.

Shevchenko said she broke her thumb in the first round of the last fight.

“I was expecting a battle,” Shevchenko said. “I fought until the end, and I think I did enough.”

A decorated kickboxer, Shevchenko is primarily known for precise counter-striking. The southpaw stands 5-foot-5 and has a reach of 66 inches, and her fights average 17:57. She lands 3.28 significant strikes per minute with 52 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.11 with 62 per cent defence. Shevchenko’s takedown average is 2.56 per 15 minutes with 63 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 71 per cent.

She has two losses by decision and one each by KO/TKO and submission with eight wins each by KO/TKO and decision and one by submission. Shevchenko’s five stoppage victories in UFC women’s flyweight competition are second-most in divisional history behind Gillian Robertson (seven) and her four knockout victories are most in divisional history. Shevchenko has completed at least one takedown in 15 of her 16 UFC appearances, and her 39 takedowns are most in divisional history.

For Saturday, her favoured method of victory is by decision at +175, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +800 and submission at +1000. To win in Round 1, she’s +1800. That the fight goes the full five rounds is -175 with no at +130. That it ends via KO/TKO by either fighter is +400 with submission +250 and decision -175.

UFC 306 Prediction: Grasso vs. Shevchenko

So evenly matched that we simply like the fight going the distance at -175.