UFC 305 Odds, Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya

The UFC is headed back to Australia for Saturday’s UFC 305 card, with a main event from the middleweight division.

This fight opened as a virtual pick’em on the MMA odds, with Israel Adesanya a slight -115 favourite, while middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis is a -105 underdog.

Dricus Du Plessis UFC 305 Odds

Du Plessis is 21-2 in a professional MMA career that dates back to 2013. The 30-year-old South African won the middleweight belt by close split decision over Sean Strickland in January, improving his UFC record to a perfect 7-0, with five of those wins coming by knockout or submission.

Du Plessis has an unconventional fight style, but you can’t argue with the results as 19 of his 21 career victories have been finishes. He’s done nothing but prove himself since joining the UFC, defeating middleweight stalwarts like Strickland, Robert Whittaker, Derek Brunson and Darren Till.

“Stillknocks” will likely use the same plan he deployed against Strickland, by turning things into a dog fight. He will focus on pushing into Adesanya’s space and wearing him out with takedowns. Du Plessis averages an elite 6.49 significant strikes landed per minute, but Adesanya is elusive, so a knockout will be hard to land. If Du Plessis wins, it will likely be by decision.

Israel Adesanya UFC 305 Odds

Adesanya is 24-3 since his professional MMA debut in 2012, with his three losses coming in the last three years. The 35-year-old Nigerian likely bit off more than he could chew when he challenged Jan Blachowicz for the light heavyweight belt in a failed bid to become a two-division champion in 2021, but his focus is back in the middleweight division.

Adesanya originally won the middleweight belt with a second-round knockout over Robert Whittaker in 2019 and successfully defended the belt five times. He lost and regained the belt in back-to-back fights against Alex Pereira before losing it again against Strickland last September.

“The Last Stylebender” has had a long break since his last appearance in the Octagon, so he should be refreshed heading into UFC 305. Adesanya is a master at keeping the distance and utilizing spacing, so I would expect him to use his four-inch reach advantage to score some early points. He has 16 career knockout victories and that will likely be his focus against Du Plessis.