UFC 303 Odds, Prediction: Cub Swanson vs. Andre Fili
Fili is a -250 favourite on the MMA odds, Swanson is +210 and the over-under is 2.5 rounds for the scheduled three-rounder.
Cub Swanson UFC 303 Odds
Ilia Topuria is the current UFC featherweight champion, and the 40-year-old Swanson, from California, is unranked with a professional MMA record of 29-13 that dates way back to 2004 when Swanson lost his first pro bout to Shannon Gugerty in Total Combat. This will be Swanson’s 31st UFC/WEC featherweight bout, the most appearances in divisional history. Swanson has been awarded 13 post-fight bonuses during his time in the WEC and the UFC, worth nearly $500,000. His fights are rarely boring, and Swanson now will have fought at least once in 20 consecutive calendar years.
“Killer” has alternated wins and losses over his past five but hasn’t been in the Octagon since beating Hakeem Dawodu by unanimous decision last August. It was Swanson’s return to featherweight after trying out bantamweight for a bout against Jonathan Martinez in October 2022, which Swanson lost by second-round TKO (leg kick).
The 5-foot-8 Swanson has a reach of 70 inches and his bouts average 11:34. He lands 4.70 significant strikes per minute with 50 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.84 with 59 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.09 per 15 minutes with 52 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 61 per cent.
Swanson has seven losses by submission, three by KO/TKO and three by decision, while 13 of his wins are by KO/TKO, 12 by decision and four by submission. His 19 victories in UFC/WEC featherweight competition are second-most in combined divisional history behind Max Holloway (20), and Swanson’s 14 victories in UFC featherweight competition are third-most in divisional history behind Holloway (20) and Darren Elkins (17).
For Saturday, Swanson’s favoured method of victory is by decision at +300, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +500 and submission at +2200. A draw is +500. Swanson’s eight stoppage victories in UFC/WEC featherweight competition are third most in the combined divisional history, and his six knockout victories are tied for second-most in divisional history.
Andre Fili UFC 303 Odds
The 34-year-old Fili, also from California, is unranked as well in the featherweight division with a career mark of 23-11 with a no-contest (accidental eye poke) against Daniel Pineda in June 2021. Fili hasn’t won back-to-back fights since 2019 and comes off a first-round KO loss (punches) to Dan Ige in February. Fili was a short-notice replacement for an injured Lerone Murphy.
This will be Fili’s 23rd UFC featherweight bout, tied with Swanson for the third-most appearances in divisional history behind Darren Elkins (26) and Max Holloway (26). Fili lost to the former champion Holloway back in April 2014.
“Touchy” has a reach of 74 inches and his fights average 10:25. He lands 3.85 significant strikes per minute with 37 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.11 with 51 per cent defence. His takedown defence is 2.16 per 15 minutes with 47 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 69 per cent.
Fili has five losses via the judges, four by KO/TKO and two by submission. He has 10 wins each by decision and KO/TKO and three by submission. Fili’s 11 wins in UFC featherweight competition are tied for the fourth-most in divisional history. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +175, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +225 and submission at +800.
That the bout goes the full three rounds is +105 with no at -135. That either wins by KO/TKO/DQ is +100 and by submission +650. That it goes to split decision is +300 with no at -400. Both fighters have had at least a couple fights resolved by split decision.