UFC 303 Odds, Prediction: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes

After losing three of four fights, Brian Ortega returned to the win column with a Performance of the Night bonus in his last fight in February. Diego Lopes comes in as the hotter fighter with three straight first-round finishes.

Lopes is a -145 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Ortega is a +120 underdog.

Brian Ortega UFC 303 Odds

The 33-year-old Ortega, who is ranked No. 3 in the featherweight division, has a 16-3 record (one no contest) since his professional MMA debut in 2010. He is a former RTC and RFA featherweight champion before making his UFC debut in 2014. Since then, he is 8-3 in the Octagon after his first fight, originally a submission win, was deemed a no contest because of a positive drug test.

Ortega has been extremely close to breaking through in the featherweight division. He’s fought for the belt twice, but it resulted in a doctor’s stoppage loss against Max Holloway in 2018 and a unanimous decision loss against Alexander Volkanovski in 2021. In Ortega’s follow up fight after facing Volkanovski, he ended up suffering a shoulder injury against Yair Rodriguez that kept him out of action for 19 months. He won the rematch against Rodriguez with his eighth career submission victory in February.

“T-City” is a natural grappler, who is known for his elite jiu jitsu skill. He consistently moves from submission to submission and he has a great ability to suddenly take control even if he was just getting beat up. Ortega’s seven career finishes is second all-time in featherweight division history and his overall fight style has improved to the point where he as just as comfortable standing up as he is on the ground.

Ortega is facing a fighter who also naturally engages on the canvas, so his best bet might actually be to rely on his stand up ability. He’s become a fluid puncher with a lot of power and he also works in a punishing counter spinning elbow. Bottom line, Ortega is comfortable finishing this fight anywhere, but his favoured method of victory on the MMA odds is by decision (+300).

Diego Lopes UFC 303 Odds

Lopes is ranked No. 14 in the featherweight division. At 29-years-old, he’s compiled a 24-6 record since 2012 and fought all over Brazil and Mexico before his UFC debut at UFC 288 last May. He was a contestant on Dana White’s Contender Series 37 two years before getting a UFC contract, but lost the fight via technical decision because of an eye poke that rendered him unable to continue.

Lopes made his UFC debut on just five days notice and was impressive in a unanimous decision loss against Movsar Evloev that earned Fight of the Night. He’s been perfect in three fights since, earning three straight first-round finishes (one submission, two KOs) against Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini and Sodiq Yusuff. Two of those three wins also earned Performance of the Night bonuses.

The Brazilian Lopes has proven to be an entertaining fighter in his short time with the UFC. Keep in mind, out of his 24 professional wins, 22 have been finishes (12 submissions, 10 KOs). A natural grappler like Ortega, Lopes is also comfortable on his feet, with light and explosive footwork.

You can likely expect Lopes to take his time feeling this fight out before he makes a real push for the finish. While his boxing ability is a little below Ortega’s, Lopes still holds sneaky-good power and he won’t be afraid to trade blows. Lopes’ favoured method of victory is KO/TKO (+175) which he has earned in four of his last five wins.

UFC 303 Prediction: Ortega vs. Lopes

Both fighters have earned finishes in more than half of their career victories, so this fight likely won’t go the distance. I give the edge to Lopes. He’s ended each fight on his three-fight win streak quicker than the last and I think he has a championship-calibre ceiling.

Prediction: Lopes wins by KO/TKO (+175).