UFC 301 Odds, Prediction: Jonathan Martinez vs. Jose Aldo
Martinez has climbed to No. 12 in the UFC bantamweight division during his current win streak, which he extended with a second-round TKO victory over Adrian Yanez last fall at UFC Vegas 81 that also earned him his second Performance of the Night bonus in three fights. Aldo returns to the octagon for the first time since suffering a unanimous decision loss to Merab Dvalishvili over 20 months ago at UFC 278 that ended a promising three-fight win streak.
Following his long layoff, Aldo returns to action as a +120 underdog on the UFC 301 odds. Martinez leads the way as a -145 favourite, with the odds of this fight going a full three rounds pegged at -225.
Jonathan Martinez UFC 301 Odds
Martinez has demonstrated his ability to wear down opponents during his current run of wins, with four of his past six victories coming by unanimous decision. Martinez has seemingly gotten stronger as those marathon fights progressed, outhitting opponents by an average of over 10 strikes in third-round action over that stretch. Martinez has also flashed his ability to finish with TKO wins in each of the two fights that earned him a performance bonus, with those victories coming on the strength of punishing leg strikes that effectively hobbled both Yanez and Cub Swanson, whom he topped in the second round at UFC Vegas 62.
Jose Aldo UFC 301 Odds
The former UFC featherweight champion will enjoy the benefit of a warm hometown crowd at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday night. The 37-year-old Brazilian retired following his loss to Dvalishvili in August 2022, but has not remained idle. Aldo has been trying his hand at boxing, fighting three times and compiling a 20-0-1 record. However, “Junior” is returning to the octagon to handle some unfinished business, as he looks to claim yet another shot at the UFC bantamweight crown. Overall, Aldo has produced mixed results since moving up to the UFC bantamweight division, compiling a 3-3 record including a fifth-round TKO loss to petr Yan is his bid for the UFC bantamweight strap at UFC 251.
UFC 301 Prediction: Jonathan Martinez vs Jose Aldo
Once a feared power puncher, who has 17 career knockouts to his credit, it remains to be seen just how much Aldo has left in the tank and how much his recent experience in the squared circle will benefit his MMA game. In any case, Aldo finds himself facing a durable opponent who is happy to play a long game. Martinez will take the opportunity to finish Aldo if it presents itself, but will likely focus on scoring points while delivering a solid 4.64 significant strikes per minute.
Prediction: Jonathan Martinez by decision (+125)