UFC 299 Odds, Prediction: Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page
Holland is a -135 favourite to win on the MMA odds and Page is a +110 underdog.
Kevin Holland UFC 299 Odds
Leon Edwards is the current UFC welterweight champion, and Holland, a 31-year-old from the Dallas area with a professional record of 25-10, is ranked 13th in the division. He also competed for Bellator, King of the Cage and Legacy Fighting Alliance. One of the reasons Holland got into MMA was that he was a big fan of Canadian legend Georges St-Pierre.
“Trailblazer” is one of three fighters in UFC history to go 5-0 in a calendar year, doing it in 2020. Roger Huerta (2007) and Neil Magny (2014) also accomplished the feat, but Holland did it the fastest at 210 days. He is 4-2 since he dropped to the UFC welterweight division in March 2022.
Holland comes off a split-decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena (now ranked No. 11 in the division) last September. Della Maddalena’s ability to score bigger power punches over all three rounds made the difference with two judges scoring the bout 29-28 for Della Maddalena and the third 29-28 for Holland. The winner claimed he was a bit distracted in the bout because Holland was talking throughout.
“I didn’t want to get involved, but it was hard not to,” said Della Maddalena. “It was interesting. I’ve never fought someone who does that sort of thing.”
The 6-foot-3 Holland has a huge reach of 81 inches and his fights average 11:04. He lands 4.39 significant strikes per minute with 49 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.22 with 51 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.78 per 15 minutes with 38 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 53 per cent.
Sixty percent of Holland’s losses are via the judges, while he has 14 wins by KO/TKO, seven by submission and four by decision. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +200, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +400 and submission at +575.
That the fight goes the full three rounds is -150 and no +120. Holland winning inside distance is +210 and Page doing so is +400. Holland has no doubt he will win:
“He’s not a UFC guy, he’s a Bellator guy,” he said of Page. “If I wanted to fight Bellator guys I would have went to Bellator. I’m in the UFC. Sounds good, welcome to the party. Hopefully, after I smash him he’s not even here anymore and he goes off to a different league and does his thing. “It’s a free body. That’s all it is.”
Michael Page UFC 299 Odds
The 36-year-old Page, from London, is unranked in the welterweight division despite a sterling 21-2 professional record. But there’s a good reason for that: This is Page’s UFC debut after spending the majority of his career at Bellator (didn’t fight Holland).
He has a bit of a unique fighting style, which originated from his background in freestyle kickboxing and karate. Page began training at age 3(!) in kickboxing under his father and competed at his first kickboxing tournament at the age of 5. He would go on to win 10 world championships. Page still occasionally competes in bare-knuckle boxing as well.
“Venom” was last in the Octagon in March 2023 when he beat Goiti Yamauchi by first-round TKO (leg kick) at Bellator 292 – just 26 seconds in. Page appeared to badly injure Yamauchi’s kneecap with his first strike. After that victory, Page announced his free agency from Bellator and the UFC snapped him up despite that advanced age.
“If I make it feel like anything else, that’s going to make me unsure about what’s going to happen, or unsure about myself,” Page said. “I’m hoping I go in there and it feels like home, that it just feels normal and then I kind of perform the way I know I can perform here at the UFC. … (The UFC) isn’t like, ‘we’re going to warm you up and give you someone that’s not rated or new to the game. Holland is the perfect guy, he’s game, he is tough as nails, entertaining and I’m a fan of him, as well.”
Page’s only losses came by split decision to Logan Stanley in May 2022 and by second-round KO (punches) against Douglas Lima in May 2019.
The 6-foot-2 Page is so new to the UFC, its official site doesn’t even list his reach, while his fights average just 2:13. He lands 4.53 significant strikes per minute with 76 per cent accuracy and absorbs 0.45 with 77 per cent defence. His takedown average is 3.40 per 15 minutes with 100 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 100 per cent.
Page’s 17 victories in Bellator competition are fourth-most in company history behind Patricio Freire (22), A.J. McKee (20) and Michael Chandler (18). His 11 knockout victories are tied with Freire for most in company history, and his 10 stoppage victories in Bellator welterweight competition are tied for most in divisional history. Overall, Page has 13 wins by KO/TKO, five by decision and three by submission.
For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by decision at +200, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +425 and submission +2500. A draw is +5000.
