UFC 293 Odds, Prediction: Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland

It’s a spectacular sports weekend for bettors with the NFL kicking off and a terrific UFC 293 card on Saturday night Eastern time from Sydney, Australia, topped by a middleweight title bout between champion Israel Adesanya and contender Sean Strickland. Adesanya is a -660 favourite on the MMA odds, while Sean Strickland is a +440 underdog.

Israel Adesanya -625
Sean Strickland +400

Israel Adesanya UFC 293 Odds

The 34-year-old Adesanya, from Nigeria but who lives in New Zealand (why he is headlining this card Down Under), is the UFC middleweight champion and ranked as the No. 5 overall pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. He is 24-2 in a career dating to 2012, a former Australian Fighting Championship and Hex Fight Series middleweight champ and also won events in boxing and kickboxing.

“The Last Stylebender” first won the UFC belt with a unanimous decision victory over Kelvin Gastelum at UFC 236 in October 2019 and successfully defended three times before moving up to light heavyweight for a title bout at UFC 259 vs. Jan Blachowicz. Adesanya suffered his first career loss, by unanimous decision, and returned to middleweight. He won three more title fights in a row before falling to Alex Pereira via fifth-round TKO (punches) last November.

That was an upset even though Pereira also had two victories against him in kickboxing. They had a rematch in April and Adesanya reclaimed the title with a second-round KO (punches). Adesanya became the first two-time middleweight champion in UFC history and only the fourth out of 15 fighters to win their titles back in an immediate rematch.

The 6-foot-4 Adesanya ha a reach of 80 inches and his fights average 17:19 in the UFC, which is the longest in divisional history, and he’s always in five-round main events now. He lands 3.94 significant strikes per minute with 49 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.88 with 57 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.06 per 15 minutes with 14 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 77 per cent.

Adesanya’s 13 knockdowns landed in UFC middleweight competition are tied with the legendary Anderson Silva for most in divisional history, and Adesanya’s four knockdowns landed against Gastelum at UFC 236 are the single-fight record for a title bout. Adesanya’s eight victories in UFC middleweight title fights are second-most in history behind Silva (11).

Adesanya has 16 wins by KO/TKO, eight by decision and zero by submission. For Saturday, his favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at -120, followed by decision at +155 and submission at +1500. A draw is +5500.

Sean Strickland UFC 293 Odds

The 32-year-old Strickland, from Los Angeles, is ranked No. 5 in the middleweight division and 27-5 in a career dating to 2008 as he turned pro at the very young age of 17 and is a former King of the Cage middleweight champion. He actually never lost that belt but simply left for the UFC, debuting in March 2014 with a first-round submission win (rear-naked choke) against Bubba McDaniel.

This will be Strickland’s first title fight with the UFC. He is 2-2 in his past four, losing by first-round KO to Alex Pereira in July 2022 and then losing by split decision to Jared Cannonier in December. Strickland is 2-0 this year, though, beating Nassourdine Imavov by unanimous decision and then Abusupiyan Magomedov by second-round TKO (punches) in July.

Strickland is one of the biggest loose cannons on the UFC roster, and there are reports that he punched a fan recently when said fan approached Strickland and said Adesanya would wipe the floor with him — it apparently was a joking punch and the two are cool.

“Going into this, I knew what this week was gonna be like,” UFC president Dana White said at a press conference. “Yes, we’re prepared for it and yes we have people around him now so he won’t be punching people in the stomach anymore. For fun or not for fun.”

The 6-foot-1 Strickland has a reach of 76 inches and his fights average 14:10. He lands 5.86 significant strikes per minute with 41 per cent defence and absorbs 4.28 with 62 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.00 per 15 minutes with 64 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 84 per cent.

Strickland has 12 wins by decision, 11 by KO/TKO and four by submission with three losses via the judges and two by KO/TKO. He is 5-2 since he returned to the UFC middleweight division in October 2020. Strickland is one of 17 fighters in history to earn victories in three UFC weight classes and one of three fighters to win bouts specifically at light heavyweight, middleweight and welterweight (Ildemar Alcantara and Trevin Giles the others).

For Saturday, Strickland’s favoured method of victory is by KO/TKO/DQ at +900, followed by decision at +1200 and submission at +2200. The over-under is 4.5 rounds, with the under a -135 favourite. That it does the distance is +110 with no at -151.