UFC 274: Rose Namajunas vs. Carla Esparza Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews
May 3, 2022

The co-main event of UFC 274 from Phoenix on Saturday night is a women’s strawweight title bout and rematch between champion Rose Namajunas and No. 2 contender Carla Esparza. Namajunas is a -270 favourite to win on the MMA odds and Esparza is a +180underdog. The over-under is 4.5 rounds.

Rose Namajunas UFC 274 Odds

The 29-year-old Namajunas, from Wisconsin, is 11-4 in her professional MMA career and ranked as the No. 3 women’s pound-for-pound fighter in the sport behind flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko and featherweight champ Amanda Nunes.

“Thug” Namajunas has not faced either. She lost to Esparza for the UFC’s inaugural strawweight title at “The Ultimate Fighter 20” finale in December 2014. Namajunas would win the belt in November 2017 at UFC 217 with a first-round TKO (punches) over Joanna Jedrzejczyk. She then defended with a rematch victory vs. Jedrzejczyk by unanimous decision at UFC 223. Jessica Andrade then claimed the belt in an upset at UFC 237 with a second-round KO of Namajunas.

She got payback on Andrade by split-decision win at UFC 251 and enters off back-to-back title fight wins over Weili Zhang, the first by first-round KO and the most recent last November by split decision. That second win moved Namajunas to 4-0 in rematches in her career. She is the only female in UFC history to have multiple title reigns in a single weight class.

The 5-foot-5 Namajunas has five wins by submission, four by decision and two by KO/TKO. She has lost at least once by each (two by decision). Her fights average 12:39 and she lands 4.01 significant strikes per minute with 41 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.88 with 59 per cent defence. Her takedown average is 1.78 per 15 minutes with 56 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence is 51 per cent.

Namajunas’ four knockdowns landed in strawweight competition are second-most in divisional history, and her five stoppage victories are tied with Andrade for most in divisional history. Namajunas’ favoured method of victory Saturday is by decision at +120, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +300 and submission at +505.

Carla Esparza UFC 274 Odds

Esparza (18-6), from California, is ranked No. 2 in the division behind former champion Weili Zhang and obviously Namajunas. This might be the last title shot for Esparza at age 34 (35 in October). She’s a former wrestling All-American and in fact stepped up on short notice to replace Namajunas in a grappling match against Danielle Kelly at Fury Pro Grappling 3 last December. Esparza had a cut opened above her eyebrow during and was declared the loser.

“Cookie Monster” was the UFC strawweight champion with that December 2014 win over Namajunas and also the first Invicta FC strawweight champion. Esparza hasn’t fought for the belt since losing it after the Namajunas fight in a second-round TKO loss to Jedrzejczyk in March 2015. That fight wasn’t particularly close. Esparza does enter on a five-fight winning streak.

The 5-foot-1 Esparza will be giving up about four inches in height and two in reach. Her fights average 13:43 and she lands 2.34 significant strikes per minute with 43 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.75 with 53 per cent defence. Her takedown average is 3.53 per 15 minutes with 37 per cent accuracy, and her takedown defence 48 per cent. She has won four fights by KO/TKO, four by submission and 10 by decision. Three of her six losses are via the judges.

Esparza has completed at least one takedown against 12 of her 13 UFC opponents, and her 42 takedowns landed in strawweight competition are most in divisional history. Her favoured method of victory is by decision at +200, followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +800 and submission at +900.