UFC 274: Charles Oliveira vs. Justin Gaethje Odds, Prediction
The lightweight championship is on the line on Saturday as Charles Oliveira will defend his belt against No. 1 contender Justin Gaethje in the main event of UFC 274 in Phoenix. This is Gaethje’s second shot at the title after falling to former champion Khabib Nurmagomedov two years ago. It won’t be easy for Gaethje, however, as Oliveira has won 10 straight fights over the last four years.
Oliveira is a -175 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Gaethje is a +135 underdog. The total rounds is set very low at 1.5 with the Over favoured at -215.
Charles Oliveira UFC 274 Odds
Oliveira (32-8 MMA record, 1NC) pushed his winning streak to 10 fights with stoppage victories over Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirier in 2021, becoming just the 11th undisputed lightweight champion in UFC history. He’s been absolutely dominant over his last 10 fights, picking up stoppage victories in nine of them.
“Do Bronx” is a pure finisher and has only gone the distance in three of his 32 career MMA wins. The Brazilian has 20 wins by submission, nine by knockout, three by decision and one no contest. He’ll have a large four-inch reach advantage in this fight and a one-inch leg reach advantage.
Oliveira clearly has superior finishing abilities and instincts. He excels on the ground and averages 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes with 41 per cent takedown accuracy. It’s worth noting his opponent has never won by submission in the UFC. Oliveira has also averaged 2.8 submissions per 15 minutes and has four takedowns and eight submission attempts over his last four fights. Bank on Oliveira bringing this fight to the ground.
Despite his superior ground game, Oliveira has proven he can be dangerous on his feet as well. The 32-year-old won the lightweight belt by knockout (punches) against Chandler almost exactly one year ago. That win broke the UFC record for most career finishes (17) and earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. Oliveira’s greatest strength is his adaptability and chameleon-like fight adjustments. If his plan to get Gaethje on the ground doesn’t work, Oliveira is more than capable of winning in a brawl.
Justin Gaethje UFC 274 Odds
Gaethje (23-3 MMA record) has the honour (or curse) of being Nurmagomedov’s last career victim. The 33-year-old Gaethje was never in control when he met Nurmagomedov in October 2020 and eventually lost the fight by second-round submission. He followed that up with a win in his last fight, however, defeating Chandler by unanimous decision last November. It was the first time Gaethje has gone the distance in eight total UFC fights.
“The Highlight” is a pure striker and has 19 career victories by knockout, three by decision and just one by submission. An All-American Division I wrestler, Gaethje is capable of defending himself on the ground and boasts a 73 per cent takedown defence. Still, his one professional submission win came 10 years ago at Rage in the Cage 162, so don’t bank on him trying anything like that against Oliveira.
Gaethje is an absolute brawler. He averages 7.5 significant strikes per minute with 60 per cent accuracy. That compares to 3.44 significant strikes per minute with 53 per cent accuracy for Oliveira. Gaethje throws devastating leg kicks and his hands can drop opponents instantly. He landed 116 shots against Chandler and brutalized Tony Ferguson with 143 in May 2020, most of which were face shots.
One concern is that Gaethje absorbs an average of 7.81 significant strikes per minute, while Oliveira absorbs 3.13. That’s a big difference. Gaethje would be crazy not to keep this fight standing up. He’s the better striker and he can make Oliveira uncomfortable on his feet. This fight has the potential to become an all-out slugfest that either fighter could win.
UFC 274 Prediction: Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Oliveira and Gaethje both like to go on the attack, so bank on an entertaining but brutal fight. Gaethje is a dangerous opponent and he has the ability to get a knockout win against anyone, but his style is too run-and-gun to be consistent. Oliveira will come into this fight prepared for anything with a Plan A, B and C. Oliveira wins by submission.