UFC 273: Aljamain Sterling vs. Petr Yan Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews
April 5, 2022

The first title fight at UFC 273 from Jacksonville, Fla., on Saturday is a unification bantamweight bout and rematch between champion Aljamain Sterling and interim champ Petr Yan. It’s Yan who is a sizeable -545 favourite to win on the MMA odds with Sterling at +355.

Aljamain Sterling UFC 273 Odds

Despite being the bantamweight champion, Sterling is not among the UFC’s Top 15 pound-for-pound fighters. The 32-year-old Sterling, a New York native, is 20-3 in a professional career that began in 2011. He was a former Cage Fury Fighting Championship bantamweight king, defending that belt a few times before debuting in the UFC in 2014 with a unanimous decision win over Cody Gibson.

The first loss for the “Funk Master” came in January 2017 to Bryan Caraway and he would lose twice more over his next four fights to Raphael Assuncao and Marlon Moraes. Sterling does enter on a six-fight winning streak and was last in the Octagon in March 2021 when he beat the favoured and champion Yan thanks to a disqualification – an illegal knee by Yan. In the fourth round as Sterling was attempting to score a takedown, he was stuck on the ground and considered down with a knee touching the mat, but Yan then landed a clearly illegal knee. Sterling became the first fighter to win a UFC title by disqualification.

The two were to have a rematch at UFC 267, but Sterling withdrew due to lingering neck issues that required surgery and an interim title bout between Yan and Cory Sandhagen was set.

“I know the Vegas oddsmakers have me as a big underdog,” Sterling said of the rematch. “This is what everyone wants to go out of their way to tell me. I know that betting on me is right. I’ve bet on me the last six times and I’ve won every single time. So let’s go out there and do it again, prove the last one was a mishap and prove this was the way it should’ve went down the first time.”

The 5-foot-7 Sterling’s average fight time is 12:24. He lands 4.84 significant strikes per minute with 49 per cent accuracy and absorbs 2.20 per minute with 63 per cent defence. Sterling’s takedown average is 1.77 per 15 minutes with 24 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 41 per cent.

Nine of Sterling’s wins are by decision, eight by submission, two by KO/TKO and that one by “other.” His six stoppage victories in UFC bantamweight competition are fourth-most in divisional history. Sterling’s four submission victories in UFC bantamweight competition are tied for third-most in divisional history.

His favoured method of victory Saturday is by points at +510, followed by submission at +695 and KO/TKO/DQ at +1200.

Petr Yan UFC 273 Odds

It’s probably fair to say the fans Saturday could be heavily against Yan because he’s Russian, although obviously it’s not his fault regarding the invasion of Ukraine. The 29-year-old, who is 16-2, is ranked as the No. 9 pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC.

“No Mercy” is a former Absolute Championship Berkut bantamweight champion. His first loss came to Magomed Magomedov in an ACB title fight but then he got payback. Yan’s first fight in the UFC was a first-round TKO of Teruto Ishihara in June 2018, and Yan won the bantamweight title in June 2020 with a fifth-round TKO over former featherweight champ Jose Aldo.

The first Sterling fight was up next and two judges had Yan up 29-28 and one had Sterling up 29-28 before the illegal knee led to Yan’s disqualification. Because Sterling was sidelined by health reasons, Yan would earn the interim belt with a unanimous decision win over Cory Sandhagen last October.

Yan fights average 15:14. While Yan is the same height as Sterling at 5-foot-7, the Russian will have a four-inch reach advantage. Yan averages 5.98 significant strikes per minutes with 52 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.14 with 62 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.75 per 15 minutes with 61 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 89 per cent.

Yan has eight wins by decision, seven by KO/TKO and one by submission. His 10 knockdowns landed in UFC bantamweight competition are most in divisional history. Yan’s favoured method of victory is by decision at -105, by KO/TKO/DQ at +125 and by submission at +900.