UFC 272: Sergey Spivak vs. Greg Hardy Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews
March 2, 2022

The first fight on the main card of UFC 272 from Las Vegas on Saturday night features former NFL player Greg Hardy as a +165 underdog on the MMA odds for a heavyweight bout vs. Sergey Spivak, who is favoured to win at -220.

Sergey Spivak UFC 272 Odds

The UFC heavyweight champion is Francis Ngannou and Spivak isn’t ranked. Beating Hardy isn’t going to change that. The 27-year-old from Moldova is 13-3 in a professional career that began in 2014. He was a former World Warriors Fighting Championship heavyweight champ.

The 6-foot-3 Spivak made his UFC debut in May 2019 against Walt Harris and suffered his first pro loss by first-round TKO (punches). “The Polar Bear” is 4-2 since then, having a three-fight winning streak snapped in his most recent fight in September 2021 by first-round TKO (elbow and punches) vs. Tom Aspinall.

Spivak’s fights average 9:27 and he has five wins by KO/TKO, six by submission and two by decision. Two of three losses are by KO/TKO and the third by decision. Spivak lands 3.71 significant strikes per minute with 49 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.22 per minutes with 55 per cent defence. His takedown average is 2.72 per 15 minutes with 57 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 70 per cent.

Little doubt that Spivak will try to get this fight on the ground. His favoured margin of victory is by points at +200 followed by KO/TKO/DQ at +245 and submission at +250.

Greg Hardy UFC 272 Odds

Hardy was the No. 6 overall pick in the 2010 NFL Draft out of Ole Miss by the Carolina Panthers and from 2012-13 was one of the league’s best pass-rushers with a combined 26 sacks. His final season in the league was in 2015 with the Dallas Cowboys when Hardy was still fairly productive, but he had some major off-field issues that ended that part of his career.

The 6-foot-5 Hardy, now 33, is 7-4 in a professional MMA career that began in June 2018. He’s not remotely a contender in the heavyweight division and frankly is only on the main card because he’s well-known from his football career. “Prince of War” comes off a second straight loss in July 2021, a first-round KO (punches) against Tai Tuivasa.

Hardy’s fights average just 6:41 and he lands 4.84 significant strikes per minute with 50 per cent accuracy. He absorbs 3.22 per minute with 56 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.20 per 15 minutes with 33 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 80 per cent.

No question that Hardy fights can be entertaining because he’s a very aggressive striker and they rarely go the distance. Six of his seven wins are by KO/TKO and two of his four losses. Two total fights have gone to the judges. His favoured method of victory Saturday is by KO/TKO/DQ at +225, followed by points at +555 and submission at +1800.

Hardy will have a two-inch reach advantage. The over-under for total rounds is 1.5, with the over a -160 favourite. That it fails to go the distance is a -256 favourite.