UFC 272: Rafael dos Anjos vs. Renato Moicano Odds, Prediction
Less than a month after his last fight, Renato Moicano is headed back to the Octagon to take on Rafael dos Anjos in the co-main event of UFC 272 on Saturday night in Las Vegas. Both lightweight fighters, this will be a catchweight fight at 160 pounds because Moicano is taking the fight on short notice after dos Anjos’ original opponent dropped out. A win for either veteran fighter pushes them to the fringes of title contention, so there’s a lot on the line this weekend.
Dos Anjos is a -185 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Moicano is a +145 underdog.
Rafael dos Anjos UFC 272 Odds
Dos Anjos (30-13 MMA record) comes in as the No. 6 ranked fighter in the lightweight division. He debuted back at UFC 91 in 2008, eventually going on to defeat notable names like Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, Nate Diaz and Anthony Pettis. Dos Anjos won the lightweight championship in 2015, but only managed one successful title defence. This is actually a return to lightweight after fighting in the welterweight division for his last nine fights.
Because of injuries and COVID issues, this will be dos Anjos’ first fight since November 2020. In his last fight, the 37-year-old defeated Paul Felder by split decision, but it was only his second win in six fights. Dos Anjos has won by knockout five times, submission 10 times and decision 15 times.
Dos Anjos is one of the more well-rounded fighters you will see. He’s the complete package, expertly blending together dangerous Muay Thai, suffocating wrestling and skilled jiu-jitsu. The Brazilian isn’t necessarily the best at any of those skills, but he’s good enough at all of them to be incredibly dangerous and versatile. Combined with an seemingly endless gas tank, dos Anjos is always a threat.
The key to this fight for dos Anjos is grinding it out. He needs to make Moicano fight for positions in the clinch and on the mat. Moicano is taking the fight on almost no notice, so wearing him down by focusing on wrestling is key for dos Anjos.
Renato Moicano UFC 272 Odds
Moicano (16-4-1 MMA record) is determined to get a shot at the lightweight belt in the near future, evidenced by the fact he’s taking this fight on just four days notice. He’s been on the UFC roster since 2014, earning wins over names like Jeremy Stephens, Calvin Kattar and Cub Swanson.
The Brazilian has won three of his last four fights and is only three weeks removed from submitting Alexander Hernandez in the second round at UFC 271. Interestingly enough, Moicano has never won by knockout in his professional career, although his last seven fights have all ended before going to decision. He has nine wins by submission and seven by decision.
Like dos Anjos, Moicano is a well-rounded fighter with a background in jiu-jitsu. With this being a short-notice fight, he’ll likely want to conserve energy by turning this into a kickboxing match. He has a two-inch reach advantage and statistically he’s the better striker. Moicano lands 5.12 significant strikes per minute with 47 per cent accuracy, compared to 3.49 strikes with 46 per cent accuracy for dos Anjos.
Moicano’s best strategy to avoid being bullied and worn down by dos Anjos is to punish him with hard takedowns. Moicano averages 2.14 takedowns per 15 minutes (1.93 for dos Anjos) with 53 per cent accuracy (37 per cent for dos Anjos). Punishing takedown attempts with strikes will make it harder for dos Anjos to set up shots and it will hurt him for trying.
UFC 272 Prediction: Dos Anjos vs. Moicano
For a catchweight bout on incredibly short notice, this is going to be a great fight. It’s two well-rounded Brazilian veterans who are both inching closer to a title shot. I really think Moicano would win this fight if he had a proper training camp to prepare, but it’s just too quick of turnaround to have faith he’ll last five rounds. Dos Anjos wins by second-round submission.
