UFC 272: Edson Barboza vs. Bryce Mitchell Odds, Prediction

Payton Matthews
March 2, 2022

At least by the MMA odds, the most evenly matched fight on the UFC 272 main card Saturday night from Las Vegas is at featherweight between Edson Barboza and Bryce Mitchell.

Mitchell is a -150 favourite to win on the MMA odds. Barboza is +120.

Edson Barboza UFC 272 Odds

The UFC featherweight champion is Alexander Volkanovski, and Barboza is ranked No. 10 in the division. He has yet to fight for a belt in the UFC and probably never will at age 36. Barboza was once a Ring of Combat lightweight champion.

The Brazilian is 22-10 in his MMA career, which began in 2009, and he has been in the UFC since 2010. Barboza did fight arguably the top pound-for-pound MMA fighter on the planet in now supposedly retired Khabib Nurmagomedov in December 2017. Khabib won by unanimous decision.

Barboza moved down to featherweight at the end of 2019. He is 2-2 since then, coming off a third-round TKO loss (punches) to Giga Chikadze in August 2021. The 5-foot-11 Barboza is a striker with a Muay Thai background who absolutely will want to keep this fight standing up.

A total of 13 of his wins are by KO/TKO, eight by decision and just one by submission. He has four losses each by KO/TKO and decision and two by submission. Barboza’s fights average 11:28. He lands 4.11 significant strikes per minute with 44 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.19 per minute with 59 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.40 per 15 minutes with 44 per cent accuracy. His takedown defence is 78 per cent.

Barboza has been involved in Fight of the Night eight times, tied for the most in UFC history. He will have a five-inch reach advantage Saturday.

Bryce Mitchell UFC 272 Odds

The 27-year-old Mitchell, who fights out of Arkansas, is 14-0 in his career and rising in the sport as the No. 11 ranked fighter in the featherweight division. He’s definitely an outspoken guy, very much against COVID vaccines and having claimed the 2017 Las Vegas shooting was an inside job by the US government and that the 2020 presidential election was rigged, among other topics.

“Thug Nasty” started his pro career in 2015 and made his UFC debut in 2017 with a majority decision win over Tyler Diamond. Mitchell hasn’t fought since Halloween 2020 when he beat Andre Fili by unanimous decision, taking Fili down seven times. Mitchell is not a striker but a grappler who has nine wins by submission and six by decision. He was honoured with the UFC Submission of the Year in 2019 vs. Matt Sayles when he won by rare twister lock.

The 5-foot-10 southpaw’s fights average 12:52. He lands 2.2 significant strikes per minute with 61 per cent accuracy. He absorbs 1.46 per minute with 60 per cent defence. Mitchell’s takedown average is 3.26 per 15 minutes with 46 per cent accuracy, and his takedown defence is 33 per cent.

The over-under for rounds is 2.5, with the under a -125 favourite.