UFC 270: Francis Ngannou vs. Ciryl Gane Odds, Prediction

The UFC’s first big event of the season is highlighted by a heavyweight championship unification bout between current heavyweight champ Francis Ngannou and interim champion Ciryl Gane.  The former teammates and training partners will headline the main card of UFC 270 on Saturday night at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California.

Gane comes in as a -155 favourite to win on the MMA odds, while Ngannou is a +120 underdog.

Francis Ngannou UFC 270 Odds

Any lingering questions about Ngannou (16-3 MMA record) were answered with a dominant second-round knockout win over Stipe Miocic at UFC 260 in March of last year.  That fight wasn’t only Ngannou’s fifth straight win (all by KO), it also earned him the heavyweight belt.  The Cameroonian native has been dominant over the last four years and hasn’t needed to fight past the second-round since a unanimous decision loss to Derrick Lewis in July 2018.

It only took 45 seconds for Ngannou to kickstart his winning streak off with a TKO finish of Curtis Blaydes at the end of 2018.  Ngannou followed that win with first-round knockouts over Cain Velasquez, Junior dos Santos and Jairzinho Rozenstruik before winning the belt at UFC 260.

A big turnaround for Ngannou’s fight-game is a noticeable improvement in his patience and a more diverse attack.  “The Predator” relied heavily on his immense power in his early career, but over the last few years he’s begun to concentrate more on throwing a mixture of non-committal jabs before landing a heavy shot and making it count.

Expect Ngannou to come out of the gate hard against his former training partner.  He only averages 2.54 significant strikes landed per minute (compared to 5.37 for Gane), meaning Ngannou relies heavily on his devastating power.  Ngannou has only need more than 45 seconds to end a fight twice on his five-fight win streak, so this could be a blink-and-you-miss-it bout.

Ciryl Gane UFC 270 Odds

All Gane (10-0 MMA record) does is win.  He’s undefeated in seven career UFC fights, including three wins in 2021 alone.  Gane comes in as the interim heavyweight champion thanks to a one-sided third-round TKO win against Lewis at UFC 265 last August.  Since debuting in the UFC in August 2019, Gane has racked up notable wins over dos Santos, Rozenstruik and Alexander Volkov in addition to the dominant win over Lewis.

Gane is a polished, fluid striker who is just as capable of ending fights early as he is going the distance.  He doesn’t possess the power of Ngannou, but he’s a more accurate striker, landing 57 per cent of significant strikes compared to 41 per cent for Ngannou.

“Bon Gamin” is incredibly agile and quick on his feet for his size and he’s much more comfortable with takedowns and submissions than his opponent.  Gane will likely play the waiting game to try to feel Ngannou out in the early part of the fight.

The Frenchman’s best strategy is to focus on defence and carefully pick his shots for the first two rounds.  Ngannou has only fought past the second round twice in the last four years and he lost both of those fights.  Look for Gane to wear down his opponent before making a move in the midway point of the fight.

UFC 270 Prediction: Ngannou vs. Gane

Heavyweight fights are unpredictable slugfests, which makes the division so great to watch.  That unpredictability, unfortunately, makes these fights tough for bettors.  There’s two ways this fight could go.  Either Ngannou will connect early and end the fight with a heavy shot, or Gane will concentrate on points and tire his opponent out.  For my money, I’m taking the latter.  Gane wins by unanimous decision.