UFC 268: Rose Namajunas vs. Zhang Weili Prediction

Payton Matthews
November 3, 2021

The first of two title fights at UFC 268 from Madison Square Garden in New York City on Saturday night is a spectacular women’s rematch between strawweight champion Rose Namajunas and No. 1 contender Weili Zhang. It’s a pick’em on the MMA odds.

Rose Namajunas UFC 268 Odds

This fight would be the main event on many UFC cards but is the co-main event to the men’s welterweight title bout between champion Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington.

The strawweight champion Namajunas is ranked as the No. 3 women’s pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC behind Amanda Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko. Namajunas is the only female in organization history to have multiple title reigns in a single weight class.

The 29-year-old Wisconsin native is 11-4 in her MMA career. Her first UFC fight was for the inaugural strawweight belt in December 2014, but she lost to Carla Esparza. “Thug” got another shot at the title in November 2017 and beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk by first-round TKO (punches). Namajunas defended the title in a rematch via unanimous decision but lost it at UFC 237 by second-round knockout against Jessica Andrade. Those two fought again in a non-title bout in July 2020 and Namajunas prevailed by split decision.

Back in April, Namajunas became the first female fighter to successfully regain a UFC title belt by upsetting Weili via first-round KO (head kick). Namajunas has five career wins by submission, three by decision and two by KO/TKO – her five stoppage victories in strawweight competition are the most in divisional history. Her four knockdowns landed also are the most. Two of her four losses are by decision.

Namajunas fights average 11:31 and she lands an average of 4.13 significant strikes per minute with 40 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.99 per minute with 60 per cent defence. Her takedown average is 1.89 per 15 minutes with 53 per cent accuracy and her takedown defence 50 per cent.

The favoured method of victory Saturday for Namajunas is by KO, TKO or DQ at +225 with by points at +265 and submission +605.

Weili Zhang UFC 268 Odds

Weili, a 32-year-old from China, is 21-2 in her MMA career and ranked as the No. 4 women’s pound-for-pound fighter in the UFC. She actually lost her first professional fight in November 2013 to Meng Bo in the China MMA League.

“Magnum” didn’t join the UFC until 2018 and won her first five bouts, including for the strawweight title against Jessica Andrade in August 2019 by first-round TKO. Weili defended it with a split-decision win over Joanna Jedrzejczyk in March 2020 – that was one of the fights of the year with an incredible 351

significant strikes landed combined — before the first bout against Rose Namajunas back in April, losing by first-round head kick to snap a 20-fight winning streak.

The 5-foot-4 Weili is the only Chinese fighter in history to win a UFC title. She has 10 wins by KO/TKO, seven by submission and four by decision. Her fights average 10:07 and she lands 6.36 significant strikes per minute with 45 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.42 with 53 per cent defence. Weili’s takedown average is 1.24 with 23 per cent accuracy and she has a takedown defence of 100 per cent.

Weili’s favoured method of victory is by points at +260, followed by KO, TKO or DQ (+270) and submission (+1200). The over-under is 4.5 rounds with the over a slight favourite. Yet that it goes the distance is a slight -120 underdog.