UFC 268: Al Iaquinta vs. Bobby Green Prediction

Payton Matthews
November 4, 2021

Perhaps the best matchup on the UFC 268 preliminary card from New York on Saturday is a lightweight matchup between American brawlers Al Iaquinta and Bobby Green.

Green is a -180 favourite to win on the MMA odds, with Iaquinta entering as a +140 underdog. It should begin around 9:15 p.m. ET.

Al Iaquinta UFC 268 Odds

The 34-year-old Iaquinta, who is from New York City, is not ranked in the lightweight division, which is currently ruled by Charles Oliveira. Iaquinta is 13-4-1 in a pro MMA career that began in 2009.

“Raging” had been in the rankings for years but has dropped three of his past four, albeit to stellar competition. He was a fill-in for the vacant UFC lightweight title against Khabib Nurmagomedov in April 2018 and represented himself extremely well in a unanimous decision loss. Iaquinta actually would not have gotten the belt had he won because he came in a bit over the weight light.

Since then, the 5-foot-7 Iaquinta has beaten Kevin Lee by unanimous decision and lost to Donald Cerrone (in Ottawa) and Dan Hooker by unanimous decision. This will be Iaquinta’s first fight since Oct. 5, 2019. The 763-day layoff is the longest of his career. Iaquinta did compete at Chael Sonnen’s Submission Underground 11 event in February 2020 and lost to Mike Perry. He also works as a real estate agent.

Iaquinta fights average 13:26 and he lands 4.06 significant strikes per minute with 40 per cent accuracy and absorbs 4.44 with 61 per cent defence. His takedown average is 0.64 per 15 minutes with 18 per cent accuracy and his takedown defence 74 per cent.

Seven of Iaquinta’s wins are by KO/TKO, six by decision and one by submission (many years ago). He has lost three times each by submission and decision.

Bobby Green UFC 268 Odds

The 35-year-old Green, a California native, also is unranked in the division and is 27-12-1 in a professional career that dates to 2008. He’s a former King of the Cage lightweight and junior welterweight champion.

“King” enters on a two-fight losing streak but his August unanimous decision loss to Rafael Fiziev has been one of the fights of the year thus far with the two trading blows and kicks continuously. One judge impossibly scored it 30-27 for Fiziev while the other two had it 29-28. Fiziev called Green a “real gangster” for standing with him throughout.

Green is not afraid to go “gangster” as he has landed 1,188 significant strikes in UFC lightweight competition, the second-most in divisional history behind Evan Dunham (1,225). Green has 10 wins by decision, nine by KO/TKO and eight by submission. Most of his losses (67 per cent) are by decision.

The 5-foot-10 Green’s fights average 13:01. He lands 5.45 significant strikes per minute with 51 per cent accuracy and absorbs 3.55 with 62 per cent defence. His takedown average is 1.46 per 15 minutes with 39 per cent accuracy and his takedown defence is 72 per cent.

The over-under for this fight is 2.5 rounds, with the over at -380.